Jim Power: Johnson to flex muscle as Brexit goes to next round

This analysis seemed to ignore the fact that Johnson was twice elected mayor in a Labour city and that Corbyn’s ideological leanings have a long history of failure in many countries over many decades.

Last Friday morning, it brought a smile to many faces to observe the reaction of outrage from the very illiberal politically correct liberal media.

They cannot claim that Johnson’s victory is a fluke or that it is down to nefarious activities.

He won fair and square and now has a commanding majority of 80 seats in the British parliament, which will inevitably give him an obnoxious swagger and a belief that he now walks on water.

However, the real work is only beginning and he will have his work cut out over the next couple of years in taking the UK out of the EU in as least damaging fashion as possible, and in appeasing all of the traditional Labour voters around the country who could never possibly have imagined in their wildest dreams casting a vote for the Tory party.

The fun is only now beginning.

Johnson is no longer leading a minority government subject to the whims of others with dubious aims and can now proceed full steam ahead with his agenda.

Unfortunately, it is still not entirely clear what that agenda is.

There is now a strong sense of wonder about what the real Boris Johnson will look like when he eventually does stand up.

One thing we do know is that a second referendum is now completely gone off the agenda, and those who believed that Brexit would never happen will be left sorely disappointed.

His election slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’ is really all we can go on at this stage and he was quite happy to repeat the slogan to a chorus of approval in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Now he will begin the process of getting his withdrawal agreement through parliament, and this should not prove a problem, given his majority.

Somewhat bizarrely, the withdrawal bill will include legislation to prevent the transition period from being extended beyond December 31, 2020. As it stands today, the UK will leave the EU on January 31. At that stage, negotiations with the EU will begin on a future trading relationship.

The balance of advantage in terms of trade negotiation skills will be very firmly on the EU side, because it is used to negotiating free trade deals.

The UK side has absolutely no experience and presumably very few skills in that regard.

Mindful of where the strength lies in the relationship, Johnson is seeking to lay down a marker and flex his new-found muscle.

The strong majority that he now commands will remove any fear of walking away from trade talks if he is not happy with the way they are being conducted.

The UK has somewhat more leverage in these trade negotiations than was the case prior to the election.

Once the trade negotiations get under way, the UK will be in a transition phase, during which time it will not be a member of the EU, but its trading relationship with the EU will remain unchanged.

It appears inconceivable that a period of 11 months will be long enough to negotiate a full trade deal.

While progress on free trade in goods might be achievable, it will prove much more difficult and complicated in areas such as fishing rights, consumer standards, environmental standards, and services in general, but financial services in particular.

The UK can apply for a two-year extension to the transition period to December 31, 2022, if it so desires and despite the fact that the Brexit Bill rules this out, the majority that Johnson has would allow him to change that legislation if he so desired.

Such an application would have to be lodged by July 1, 2020.

However, there is also a distinct risk that if enough progress is not made by the end of 2020, the UK will end up trading with the EU on WTO terms from the beginning of 2021.

All is still to play for. Meanwhile, have a peaceful Christmas.