Support for Sinn Féin has dropped to its lowest level since the 2020 general election, according to recent polls, while the Government parties have seen a rise in popularity.
Mary Lou McDonald's party saw support drop by four points in the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll, falling behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Across all polls, Sinn Féin is still slightly ahead of rival parties but the party's continued decline this year has opened up a possible path to re-election for the current Government.
Below you will find the latest estimated public support for the main political parties based on an average of recent polls.
Fine Gael has seen a modest rise in support following the appointment of Simon Harris as leader.
Mr Harris took over Fine Gael in April after a slump in the polls under Leo Varadkar's leadership, with support now averaging about 21 per cent.
If the Coalition between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party runs its full term, a general election must be held by March 22nd next year.
Support for Independent candidates has jumped significantly since the autumn.
Between the end of October 2023 and June 2024, the estimated support for Independent candidates and other parties increased by around eight percentage points.
Despite the recent shift, Sinn Féin is still most likely to be the largest party in the next Dáil.
The breakingnews.ie poll tracker combines voting intention surveys published by major Irish pollsters into one estimate of support for each party. The data is sourced from the Irish Polling Indicator, which is maintained by UCD academic Stefan Müller.
All polls are based on a sample of people interviewed, typically more than 1,000, which is then weighted to be representative of the country.
Listed below are the polls that are currently used to calculate the polling averages.
