Fine Gael hold lead over Labour in Dublin Bay South byelection - opinion poll

Fine Gael Hold Lead Over Labour In Dublin Bay South Byelection - Opinion Poll Fine Gael Hold Lead Over Labour In Dublin Bay South Byelection - Opinion Poll
Fine Gael and Labour are leading the way in the Dublin Bay South Byelection, according to an IrishTimes/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll.
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Fine Gael candidate James Geoghegan is leading the way in the Dublin Bay South byelection, but he faces serious competition from Labour's Ivana Bacik, according to an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll in the constituency.

Mr Geoghegan has the support of 27 per cent of voters in the constituency when undecided voters are excluded, according to the poll, while Ms Bacik is at 22 per cent.

The data suggests Mr Geoghegan and Ms Bacik are the only real contenders as none of the other candidates are polling strongly enough to mount a challenge.

Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan registers at 13 per cent while Fianna Fáil candidate Deirdre Conroy is at just 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, Claire Byrne of the Green Party is at 11 per cent.

The smaller parties and Independent candidates are measured as follows: Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats) 5 per cent; Mannix Flynn (Independent) 5 per cent; Mairead Tóibín (Aontú) 3 per cent; Brigid Purcell (People Before Profit) 2 per cent; Justin Barrett (National Party) 1 per cent; Peter Dooley (Independent) 1 per cent.


The poll found that the remaining candidates received less than 1 per cent.

The survey was conducted between last Friday and Sunday, and it consisted of personal in-home interviewing in the constituency.

The interviews included a sample of 500 adults at 50 points throughout the constituency.

The accuracy level is estimated at approximately plus or minus 4.4 per cent. The level of those who did not indicate a voting preference was 18 per cent.

Mr Geoghegan and Ms Bacik will attract strong second preference, and third preference, votes according to the poll.

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Strong approval ratings for the Government in the constituency will provide a boost to Mr Geoghegan. Dublin Bay South is also a traditional Fine Gael stronghold.

Over half (55 per cent) of the constituency's voters are satisfied with the Government, with 38 per cent saying they are dissatisfied.

Satisfaction with the Government is stronger among wealthier and older voters in the constituency.

Polling takes place next week, on Thursday, July 8th.

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