Poll shows Bush and Kerry dead heat for Presidency
President George Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry are locked in a tie for the popular vote, according to an Associated Press poll, while a chunk of voters waver between their desire for change and their doubts about the alternative.
Bush’s strength continues to be a perception by many voters that he is better qualified to protect the country, although his advantage on that has dwindled in recent weeks. A majority consider Kerry indecisive, less solid on national security.
Kerry’s strengths are Bush’s weaknesses – most voters believe the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of the incumbent’s handling of the economy, domestic affairs and Iraq.
The result is deadlock. In the survey of 976 likely voters, Democrats Kerry and Senator John Edwards had 49%, compared with 46% for Republicans Bush and vice president Dick Cheney. That is within the margin of error for the poll conducted between October 18-20.
There has been little or no change since the first debate, when an uneven performance cost Bush the lead over Kerry. The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll illuminates how both sides hope to break the logjam – Kerry by appealing to voters’ desire for a new direction and Bush by fanning their fears about the risks of change.
The target: about 17% of likely voters who say they are undecided or tentatively backing a candidate while remaining open to changing their minds.
A number of other surveys show the race tied or give Bush a slight lead nationwide. The presidency will go to whoever gets a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes, a state-by-state chase that is just as close as national surveys.
As many as 10 states are toss-ups and a dozen more in contention, including two traditionally Democratic states in which Kerry is clinging to single-digit leads – New Jersey and Hawaii. Bush is fighting for his political life in two electoral-rich states he won in 2000 – Florida and Ohio.
“Anybody who tells you who will win is truly the smartest person in the world or the most arrogant,” said Democratic consultant Jim Duffy of Washington.
Likely voters are divided on many levels:
:: They are just as likely to back Democrats for Congress as Republicans, with a 47-46 split favouring Democrats. That is essentially a tie.
:: Twenty-four per cent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before election day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush.
:: A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. About as many said they were asked to vote for Bush as for Kerry.
Democrats and Republicans are spending four and five times more than ever to target their supporters and persuade them to vote. Democrats seem more confident of their efforts, but nobody will know until November 2 who had the most turnout success.
In the middle, among the 17% who tell AP-Ipsos they are still “persuadable”, more lean towards Kerry than Bush.
