Osama bin Laden will never be caught and will become the "Elvis Presley of the East", a retired American Rear Admiral is claiming.
Eugene Carolle, who now writes on issues of national security, says the coalition's war against terrorism could "intensify and perpetuate" the problem.
He also says military action directed specifically against bin Laden in Afghanistan should have clear aims.
Mr Carolle said: "I think the most probable outcome is that he will not be found. We will never know for certain what happened to Osama bin Laden."
"There will be sightings of him, there will be even films appearing, but we will not be certain what his condition or location is."
Mr Carolle also warned over the consequences of the military action in Afghanistan.
"Getting Osama bin Laden, destroying al-Qaida in Afghanistan is not a victory. It doesn't end terrorism - in fact the very actions we have taken may intensify and perpetuate the causes of terrorism," he said.
Referring to the latest video depicting bin Laden Mr Carolle said: "I was impressed by his deterioration, he appears gaunt, his eyes have lost some of their responsiveness, intelligence, he's greyer."
Meanwhile, Europe Minister Peter Hain told the same programme the coalition was determined to find bin Laden.
He said: "What that tape showed is that he is again admitting responsibility and glorying in the responsibility of that horrific terrorist attack."