The capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who is facing drug trafficking charges in the US, and Trump's declaration that the US will run the South American country revolve around two things: oil and drugs.
So, what are the facts and why do these two things matter?
How much oil does Venezuela have and produce?
Venezuela is the country with the largest quantity of oil on the planet, although the exact amount is unknown. The figure has been estimated at 303 billion barrels, according to OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, which is roughly 30 per cent higher than Saudi Arabia. This equates to 17 per cent of the world's oil resources.
But despite these vast reserves, Venezuela produces far less oil than its potential. A combination of poor management, infrastructure neglect, corruption and underinvestment has left the sector operating at a fraction of its former capacity.
At the turn of the century, the country was producing around 3.5 million barrels a day. Now, production has dropped by over 70 per cent to around one million. Compare this to the US - the world's largest producer of oil - which pumps around 13 million barrels a day.
The majority of Venezuela's oil is extra-heavy crude, concentrated in the Orinoco belt, a vast region stretching over 55,000 square kilometres. This type of oil is significantly more difficult and expensive to extract and refine than conventional oil - with techniques such as steam injection and blending with lighter crudes needed to make it saleable.
This further limits how much of the country’s reserves can be extracted. Extra-heavy crude also usually sells at a discount compared with lighter, sweeter crudes.
Venezuela's oil production is dominated by Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA), which is the state-owned oil company.
According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Venezuela exported just €3.8 billion ($4.05 billion) worth of crude oil in 2023 - roughly 97 to 98 per cent lower than other oil-producing countries such as the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
How will the US extract the oil?
The oil business in Venezuela is "a bust, a total bust", according to President Trump.
"We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," he told a press conference on Saturday.
According to The Guardian, the oil companies that could be involved include Exxon Mobil, which is the largest US oil company, and Conocophillips, which were both active in Venezuela before the oil industry was nationalised by Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez.
Chevron, the US's second-largest oil company, still operates in the country. All three of these companies have remained non-committal about President Trump's plan.
How does this affect the oil market and oil customers?
Around 80 per cent of crude oil produced by Venezuela is exported to China, as repayments for loans the country extended to Venezuela under Chávez. According to The Guardian, Beijing extended about $105 billion in loans and other financial commitments to Venezuela between 2007 and 2016.
In practice, this means that the US has disrupted billions of dollars’ worth of expected repayments, while also cutting off a major source of discounted energy that had underpinned China’s growth.
The weekend’s events are unlikely to have any immediate or lasting impact on crude prices or fuel costs, according to analysts at Third Bridge who spoke to The Guardian. But oil markets may see short-term volatility as traders react to the potential easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan crude, alongside political uncertainty.
Experts also say it would take years, and tens of billions of dollars in investment, for Venezuela to significantly boost production and influence global prices.
What about drug trafficking and cartels?
Trump has been at odds with Maduro over his alleged involvement in drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the US.
Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants have arrived into the US, as well as imports of fentanyl and cocaine.
But counter-narcotic experts say Venezuela is a thoroughfare for drugs that are produced elsewhere, according to the BBC. Fentanyl, for example, is mainly produced in Mexico and typically enters the US via the shared land border.
In August 2025, the US announced a $50 million (€42.6 million) bounty on Maduro, accusing him of being one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.
Trump has also designated two Venezuelan drug gangs, Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles, as Foreign Terrorist Organisations, alleging that the latter was led by Maduro himself.
Trump also started carrying out air strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea, killing more than 100 people in recent months. The US has also seized Venezuelan tankers and built up its military presence in the surrounding waters.
Maduro has vehemently denied being a cartel leader, accusing the US of using its "war on drugs" as an excuse to try to depose him and get its hands on Venezuela's oil.
In November, Trump gave Maduro an ultimatum to relinquish power, offering him safe passage out of the country. Maduro refused the offer, saying he did not want “a slave’s peace” and accusing the US of wanting control of his country’s oil reserves.
On Thursday, two days before his capture, Maduro said in a televised interview he would welcome US investment in the country’s oil sector.
Maduro is indicted on four counts: narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.
These are the same charges as in an earlier indictment brought against him in 2020, during the first Trump presidency. The new indictment unsealed on Saturday, which adds charges against Maduro’s wife, was filed under seal in New York just before Christmas.
The indictment accuses Maduro of partnering with “some of the most violent and prolific drug traffickers and narco-terrorists in the world” to allow for thousands of tons of cocaine to be shipped into the US.
The allegations are that drug trafficking cartels worked directly with the Venezuelan government and then sent profits to high-ranking officials who helped and protected them in exchange.
The indictment alleges that Maduro allowed “cocaine-fueled corruption to flourish for his own benefit, for the benefit of members of his ruling regime, and for the benefit of his family members.”
