Former Fine Gael senior strategist Frank Flannery says that if the poll isn't a crisis for the party - "then what is?".
He says Fine Gael could still get re-elected, but it will take a "monumental" effort.
But Flannery says the Government cannot afford to change leadership.
"In many ways, you would have to say: 'If this is not a crisis, then what is a crisis?'," he said.
"Having said that, I believe that for the party to change leadership now, or the Government to change leadership now, would be an extraordinarily difficult thing and potentially a disastrous mistake."