One Brexit obstacle avoided as others wait over the horizon
After a chaotic 48 hours and more than a little political ducking and diving, next week’s looming Brexit cliff edge has been pushed back — much to the relief of people who are in the direct firing line if it all goes wrong.
But while calm has descended again, for now, the reality with the seemingly never-ending Brexit groundhog day is that even when one obstacle is — just about — avoided, several more are waiting just over the horizon.
House Of Commons chaos
Ms May faces another dance with political death next week when she tables her battered Brexit deal for a third time in the House of Commons, most likely on Tuesday. If MPs back it, the May 22 Brexit date is a certainty. Reject it, and the deadline cuts to April 12. French president Emmanuel Macron believes Ms May has just a 5% chance of the deal passing, hardly a ringing endorsement. And this grim prediction may explain why she will also table seven “indicative” options votes in the coming days.
Rolling delays
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar insisted yesterday that the two new Brexit deadlines are not a “rolling” Brexit cliff edge. But it sure doesn’t look like a nice, calm hill to stroll down either. Whether politicians like it or not, the reality is the absolutely firm March 29 deadline has — for good reason — now morphed into an April 12 and May 22 flexible friend.
Does May want a no deal?
The sneaking suspicion among EU leaders in Brussels this week was that Ms May is increasingly opening herself up to a no deal after she refused to rule it out in a behind-closed-doors meeting. Ms May’s first option remains a deal. But is she or Brexiteers now running the show?
MEP elections
The MEP officials reaction to the delay news in one word: Groans. The reason is simple. Britain must decide if it is running candidates by April 12. Leave, and Britain’s seats are filled elsewhere. But remain — or at least daydream of wheat fields on the fence a little longer — and either the MEP plans are torn up or Britain will be told to stay in for far longer than planned.
Northern Ireland
As German chancellor Angela Merkel pointed out in a private discussion on Thursday night, the EUhas to find a way to avoid a no deal hard Irish border. And quickly. With just three weeks until the next Brexit deadline, a solution must be found. If it isn’t, Ireland’s worst nightmare may come true.
Is the EU still united?
The obvious answer is yes. For now, there is no reason to doubt this long-term fact. However, the confusion over the delay dates on Thursday night didn’t reflect this. With the pressure mounting there is nothing to ignore.
