US election poll tracker: Trump or Harris – who's ahead in the crucial swing states?

us-election
Us Election Poll Tracker: Trump Or Harris – Who's Ahead In The Crucial Swing States?
Most polls indicate a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
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Tomas Doherty

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race to win the 2024 US presidential election, according to the latest poll of polls.

The contest still remains too close to call in the crucial battleground states that will decide who is the next president.

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On this page you will find the latest national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring ahead of the November 5th election.

National polling averages show Harris gaining on Trump after US president Joe Biden dramatically dropped out of the race on July 20th.

The US vice president currently has a 1.5-point lead over her Republican rival, according to averages by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. The gap between the two candidates has narrowed over the past two weeks.

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However, national polls are merely indicators in US presidential elections, because the overall winner is decided using the winner-takes-all electoral college system.

Each state is given a number of electoral college votes roughly in line with the size of its population. The candidate who wins the most votes in a state takes all the electoral college votes in that state.

A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to reach 270 to win.

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It is possible for a president to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote – as happened with George W Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016.

Because many states vote dependably for Democrats or Republicans in presidential elections, the outcome usually rests on a handful of states where the election is truly competitive.

Polls show Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the seven so-called swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

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With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize among the battleground states.

Harris and Trump are in a virtual tie in Pennsylvania, according to the latest polling averages.

If Trump won every state where he currently leads in the polling averages, he would reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.

That outcome is far from certain. Harris could easily take the presidency if she gains ground in swing states – or if the polls are underestimating support for the Democrats, as happened in the 2022 midterm elections.

The polls do seem to agree on one point: the US is heading for another closely contested presidential election.

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