Taiwan to defy US pressure over UN referendum
Taiwan’s planned referendum on United Nations membership may damage its crucial ties to the United States, but President Chen Shui-bian is likely to defy American pressure and see the proposal through, analysts say.
Washington regards the UN proposal as a stalking horse for formal Taiwanese independence, and fears it will lead to a dangerous spike in tensions between the self-governing island of 23 million people, and mainland China.
Nearly 60 years after the two sides split amid civil war, China continues to see Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to attack if the island moves to make its de facto independence permanent.
It has lambasted Chen’s referendum move – which proposes to jettison its official title of “Republic of China” in favour of the independent sounding “Taiwan” – as a challenge to Chinese claims of sovereignty.
At a massive pro-referendum rally on Saturday in the southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung, Chen dismissed the Chinese and American criticisms, and said the referendum would go ahead as planned next March.
Taiwan specialist Shelly Rigger of Davidson College in the US state of North Carolina said Chen would continue to defy American pressure – even if it produced an American statement that the US was opposed to Taiwanese independence.
Such a statement would be regarded as a personal slap in the face for Chen and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which is competing against the main opposition Nationalists in crucial legislative and presidential elections in the first quarter of 2008.
“To date, Washington has only said it does not support independence,” Rigger said. “I think the Bush Administration would prefer not to change policy in this way, but it is something the US could do.”
Since the UN referendum was announced in May, Washington has taken a number of steps that appear to be aimed at punishing Chen for undertaking his initiative.
One was holding up the proposed sale of relatively advanced F-16 jet fighters to the Taiwanese air force, a step that Chen rebuked in a video-conference with a Washington think tank earlier this month.
Defence experts in both Washington and Taipei agree that US support for Taiwan is crucial in any future Taiwanese military confrontation with China.
While the US transferred its recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it continues to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and has even hinted it would come to its assistance if China moved against it militarily.
Bonnie Glaser of Washington’s Centre for International and Strategic Studies said the F-16 delay could be an indicator of future trouble in the overall US-Taiwan security relationship, and suggested that Chen’s insistence on pushing the referendum forward could spill over into other areas as well.
“Hoped for progress or even breakthroughs (on other issues), such as a US-Taiwan (free trade agreement), are not possible in this environment,” she said in an email.
Alexander Huang of Taipei’s Tamkang University acknowledged that Chen’s attitude on the referendum had damaged US-Taiwan ties, but said that America’s security interests in the western Pacific prevented it from going all out in punishing the island.
“The US cannot halt military exchanges completely because China might misread the action and think the U.S. is prepared to give up Taiwan,” he said.
