[comment]Closing ranks: The Irish rugby team needs to get a result tomorrow.[/comment]

Nobody could have predicted before the tournament that this Round 4 meeting at the Aviva Stadium would have effectively no bearing on the Six Nations title with unbeaten England all but out of reach and on course for a Grand Slam.

The frustrating thing from an Irish perspective is that things could have been very different. While horrific luck on the injury front has played its part in Ireland’s collapse over the last two outings, factors within their control have also lead to their undoing.

That Wales victory falls into the category of one-off big performances that Ireland failed to back up, bringing back memories of the great triumph over Australia in Eden Park in the 2011 World Cup which was followed by an underwhelming exit from the tournament at the hands of the Welsh.

Consistency and carrying momentum from one game to the next has been a major problem for Ireland under Declan Kidney’s stewardship.

Kidney’s big calls in the current campaign, to transfer captaincy to Jamie Heaslip and to give 21-year-old Paddy Jackson his first cap in Murrayfield have backfired.

[comment]Under pressure: Paddy Jackson will have to up his kicking game against the French tomorrow.[/comment]

For such a conservative head coach to make these uncharacteristically sweeping changes suggested Kidney knew he had to roll the dice if he had any chance of taking Ireland into the 2015 World Cup.

While Ireland fell to a resurgent English team in difficult conditions in Round 2, they threw away a winning position in Murrayfield as captain Heaslip opted to turn down early three-pointers despite proclaiming confidence in rookie Jackson’s ability to take on kicking duties.

That failure to convert dominance into scores allowed Scotland to remain in the contest when they had no right and Ireland ultimately paid the price.

Jackson’s niggling hamstring strain forced the Irish management to delay naming their flyhalf until yesterday, but the big surprise came earlier in the week when Ireland’s most capped player Ronan O’Gara was omitted from the 32-man squad.

[comment]No looking back: Will Ronan O’Gara play for Ireland again?[/comment]

The role ROG has played in shaping the recent history of Munster and Irish rugby contributed to the level of the debate which his omission provoked, but in the results-driven business of sport there is little room for sentimentality.

O’Gara failed to exert his usual control off the bench against England and Scotland while putting in forgettable showings for Munster against Scarlets and Ospreys. Kidney has always claimed to pick on form and based on that O’Gara’s exclusion is justified.

The Irish head coach has safeguarded himself on the kicking front for tomorrow’s game by drafting Fergus McFadden onto the wing, a move he must regret not making for the Scotland match.

McFadden’s selection comes at the expense of Luke Fitzgerald, who would have been eyeing the vacancy on the wing after Craig Gilroy failed to shake off a groin injury, but the Leinster flyer must be content with a place on the bench.

Another Leinster man who must wait in the wings is Ian Madigan. The Dubliner has done all he can with impressive showings for his province against Scarlets and the Dragons.

[comment]In the background: Paddy Jackson will be aware of Ian Madigan’s presence on the bench at tomorrow’s game.[/comment]

Elsewhere there is some welcome personnel news as Ireland welcome back Cian Healy after his suspension for stamping on Dan Cole’s ankle in the Round 2 contest with Tom Court falling out of the squad as Dave Kilcoyne takes his now customary position on the bench.

Mike McCarthy returns to add some extra muscle to the second row alongside Donnacha Ryan with O’Callaghan named among the replacements.

Tighthead prop again falls under the microscope after Declan Fitzpatrick was ruled out through injury. Stephen Archer is preferred to Michael Bent on the bench and will make his first cap if he comes on.

While France travel to Dublin off the back of three straight defeats, Kidney and company will know they turned a corner in their last match against England which was hugely influenced by referee Craig Joubert and a fortuitous Manu Tuilagi try which should have been ruled out for offside.

However, French head coach Philippe Saint-Andre has clearly acquired his predecessor Marc Lievremont’s taste for ponderous team selections, as evidenced by his dropping Francois Trinh Duc, one of his best performers in Twickenham, for the mercurial Freddie Michalak.

The decision to remove both half-backs Morgan Parra and Trinh Duc against England was a curious one as the pair had dictated an impressive opening half for Les Bleus.

By way of contrast Michalak has endured a difficult campaign for the French. The former Shark was outplayed by his Italian counterpart Luciano Orquera in Round 1 and managed to throw three intercept passes in his 22-minute cameo at Twickenham.

Having started the tournament in unfamiliar surroundings on the wing, Wesley Fofana has hit top form since returning to his first centre berth, decorating a brilliant performance against England with a magnificent solo try.

Saint-Andre has changed Fofana’s midfield partner however, replacing Mathieu Bastareaud with experienced centre Florian Fritz. Fritz’s Toulouse teammate Maxime Medard is another familiar face returning to the French backline in place of Benjamin Fall.

The pack is unchanged from the eight that ran out in Twickenham, setting up a compelling battle of two ball-carrying back rows as O’Mahony, O’Brien and Heaslip go toe-to-toe with Nyanga, Dusatoir and Picamoles.

Both those units will see the opposing flyhalf as a potential weakness, ensuring the inexperienced Jackson and unpredictable Michalak get plenty of attention. So much will hinge on who handles that attention better.

Prediction: France to win 23-15