The number of children attending primary school is set to drop by about 20 per cent – more than 100,000 pupils – over the next 15 years, according to Department of Education projections.
As the Irish Times reports, the sharp reduction may lead to surplus numbers of teachers at primary level and could threaten the future of some smaller schools.
However, school leaders say the decline is an opportunity to reduce class sizes in the State, which surveys show are among the highest in Europe.
Official projections show enrolment at primary level peaked last year and is likely to decline until 2034. This fall-off is partly based on a projected decline in the average number of children born to women of child-bearing age.
This measurement has fallen sharply, from just over two children in 2010 to about 1.77 last year. The report projects it will fall to 1.6 by 2031 and hold steady thereafter. The impact of Covid-19 on births is unknown and has not been factored into the model, it adds.
By contrast, enrolment at secondary school is forecast to rise sharply within the next four years, reaching a record high of 410,000. This is due to a population bulge which is passing from the primary sector and into second level.
Fewer teachers
The decline in pupil numbers at primary level, however, is likely to raise fresh concerns over the future of small schools.
Almost half, 44 per cent, of primary schools have four teachers or fewer.
They account for just 15 per cent of the pupil population. Those schools considered most at risk are one or two teachers – of which there are about 550 – and are based mostly in rural areas on the western seaboard.
The Irish Primary Principals’ Network said the figures show the urgent need to boost supports for small schools to ensure their survival.
Pairic Clerkin network chief executive for the The Irish Primary Principals’ Network said:
“We need to look at ideas such as clustering supports or teachers across groups of small schools to ensure they are sustainable into the future."
The department’s official policy is that schools are closed only with the consent of parents or a board of management.
The prospect of hundreds of surplus teachers in the event of declining enrolments was raised in a 2018 spending review by the Department of Public Expenditure. However, the Irish National Teachers’ Organisation said the drop in numbers represented a “huge opportunity” to reduce class sizes.
