Daniel McConnell: Leo Varadkar’s tenure as Taoiseach may soon be over

With his new Cabinet in place, the tangible freshness and energy from the Fine Gael frontbench contrasted with the ‘male, stale, and beyond the pale’ feel of the Fianna Fáil benches opposite.

But the events of the last week, the most trying of Varadkar’s term in office, have him on the ropes, and his main opponent, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, is in pole position to be the next taoiseach.

Fine Gael’s woes are mounting and the loss of all four by-elections has, predictably, put the spotlight on Varadkar’s leadership.

Some have openly questioned Varadkar’s decision to eschew a general election last month and plump instead for the four contests, knowing that he and his party were likely to lose them all.

With his decision not to pull the plug on his impotent coalition, Varadkar surrendered himself and his party to the agenda, rather than owning it.

He got his answer last Saturday.

More specifically, the poor performance of former Fine Gael deputy leader James Reilly in the Dublin- Fingal race has raised questions as to why he was allowed to run and why there is such a reluctance to stand him down for the general election. Having topped the poll there in 2011, when Fine Gael won two seats, to finishing fourth in a by-election is a stark reversal of fortune.

Then there is the Verona Murphy dilemma. It has been a sorry saga: There was no screening process by the party before they selected her to be their candidate, her campaign was an omni-shambles, and now they have run a mile from her.

But even before the dust had settled on the weekend washout, Fine Gael was immediately forced to confront the motion of no-confidence in Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy.

What became apparent on Monday was that the result of the vote on Tuesday night was not a foregone conclusion. Immediately, focus centred on Independents such as Denis Naughten, Peter Fitzpatrick, Michael Lowry, and Noel Grealish and how they would vote.

The threat of a Christmas election heightened somewhat and what was clear was that sticking with the Government, despite its shortcomings on housing, would come at a considerable cost.

From what I understand, much work was done from Government Buildings to ensure the vote would go their way.

Hours before the vote on Tuesday, Lowry confirmed he would vote with the Government and against the motion of no confidence in Murphy.

“I stuck it out with Bertie Ahern, I stuck it out with Brian Cowen,” said Lowry.

In politics, there has to be a degree of loyalty. The timing of this motion is absolutely ridiculous. It is ill-timed, and ill-judged, and all wrong.

Lowry added that the housing problem has been “brewing for years”, — back to Fianna Fáil governments.

The Government survived by 56 votes to 53, with 35 Fianna Fáil abstentions, but it was a bruising battle.

As the walk-through vote concluded, the housing minister stood alone for several minutes on the Government benches, looking deflated and weary. He was eventually joined by Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, who comforted his embattled colleague.

But the Government cannot survive another confidence motion. Independents will not be ready to support the coalition again.

But there is a more fundamental malaise in Fine Gael. They are barely able to fill the benches in the Dáil at Leaders’ Questions, in contrast to Fianna Fáil, and the ability of the party’s leading lights in their government portfolios must be questioned.

The frustrations and fears within the party were obvious at the weekly meeting of the parliamentary party.

At the behind-closed-door meeting, veteran TD Bernard Durkan launched a blistering attack on Eoghan Murphy, hitting out at his record on housing, and criticised his colleagues for not standing by Gwing-gate TD Maria Bailey. Durkan told the meeting that a solution to the housing crisis needed to be implemented immediately, not in six months’ time.

Senior members of the party, including Cabinet members Regina Doherty and Brendan Griffin, rallied the troops during the meeting, claiming that they must go into the next general election fighting.

Griffin told colleagues that the party could not stand by and hand back power to Micheál Martin, Willie O’Dea, and Éamon Ó Cuív and allow them “make a balls of everything again”.

The meeting also was informed that Fianna Fáil was already lining up government advisers to work for them after the next general election and Fine Gael members were urged to step up and fight even harder to retain seats and win new ones.

In a rare contribution, former finance minister Michael Noonan said the public had to be made aware of the good job that Fine Gael had done in turning the economy around.

Noonan brought his experience and wisdom to the table in a bid to settle some of the unease in the room.

“Noonan made clear that it is not possible to get a win out of housing or health, so the best the party can do, in political terms, is play for a nil-all draw,” one senior TD told me.

But we are struggling as a party and the Leo magic has not materialised.

The other big fallout of the confidence vote on Tuesday was that February is now looking the most likely time for the general election, not Easter or May as previously predicted.

As one minister put it to me: “We will have to make sure to make all the Christmas parties this year,” a clear sign that this Government has not many days left to live.

For Varadkar, he is facing into that election without momentum and with his own party organisation in disarray.

Fine Gael have lost, or are losing, 10 sitting TDs of the 50 they came back with in 2017 — Enda Kenny, Michael Noonan, John Deasy, Jim Daly, Dara Murphy, Sean Barrett, Maria Bailey, Tony McLoughlin, Frances Fitzgerald, and Peter Fitzpatrick.

That is an incredible amount of ground to make up merely to stand still, even before they seek to grow their Dáil numbers and, certainly, in Dun Laoghaire, there is no way of holding what they have at present.

It has been a week to forget for Leo Varadkar — and his chances of being re-elected Taoiseach are fading by the day. A year ago, he held a 10-point lead on Fianna Fáil and was virtually certain of holding on to power. Now, he is certain of nothing.