Terrorists' identity remains a mystery
The identity of the terrorists behind the Mumbai atrocities remained a mystery today, but experts agreed they appeared to combine local grievances and international inspiration.
A previously unknown group calling itself Deccan Mujahideen has claimed responsibility for the co-ordinated attacks on hotels, a busy train station and a cinema.
Some analysts said those who carried out the attacks appeared to be an offshoot or followers of al-Qaida, the jihadist movement founded by Osama bin Laden.
They argued that the choice of civilian targets and witness accounts that gunmen were looking for US and British nationals suggested they wanted to grab international attention.
Other experts cautioned against linking the terrorists to al-Qaida, pointing out they did not use the suicide tactics that are the movement’s hallmark.
Several agreed that the shootings may have been aimed at disrupting ongoing elections in the disputed region of Kashmir and the upcoming Indian general election.
One analyst suggested the radical Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) group could be behind the attacks on Mumbai.
Alex Neill, head of the Royal United Services Institute’s Asia security programme, said the shootings had the characteristics of several different groups.
The way the gunmen “ran rampage” and took hostages, creating a “triangular zone of terror” in downtown Mumbai, recalled the 2004 Beslan school massacre, he said.
He added that the terrorists had “multiple motives”, adding that they appeared to be inspired by al-Qaida but were probably “homegrown”.
SIMI reflects an “undercurrent of resentment” among India’s large Muslim population and has carried out attacks across India, he said.
Another expert said the scale of the attacks on Mumbai was “unprecedented” and noted that the closest comparison was Iraq, where co-ordinated bombings have killed more than 100 people in a single day.
Paul Wilkinson, emeritus professor of international relations at St Andrews University, said the terrorists’ choice of civilian targets and interest in attacking Americans and Britons were “characteristic of the al-Qaida movement”.
Prof Wilkinson said India’s democratic political system and secular constitution were “anathema” to jihadi extremists, who regard it as a “key enemy”.
He added: “It has the appearance of being more of an offshoot or a follower of the al Qaida ideology in general.”
George Kassimeris, an expert in conflict and terrorism, said the Mumbai attacks were “original” and “absolutely shocking”.
He said: “Al-Qaida set the blueprint for terrorist operations and now we see different people, different groups in different parts of the world, copying it.
“The underlying theme is to cause as much havoc as possible and this is exactly what has happened in India."
Kevin Liu, head of Asia for risk forecasting company Exclusive Analysis, cautioned against attributing the attacks to al-Qaida.
“It’s probably the easiest conclusion to jump to, but definitely the most incorrect one,” he said.
He said there appeared to be a co-ordinated network of home-grown and external groups behind the attacks.
“Targeting Westerners is nothing new. But the scale and type of the attack is certainly newer in the Indian setting,” he said.
Indian intelligence has suggested the attackers may have been Pakistani, based on “loose evidence” that some of them spoke with a Pakistani accent, the company’s analysts said.
But they noted that it was “highly unlikely” the attacks on Mumbai were authorised or even known about at the top level in Pakistan.
The name of the group claiming responsibility refers to the Deccan plateau, which spreads across central and southern India.
But it is unclear whether this means the terrorists are from south India.
So far homegrown terror networks in India have mostly recruited members from northern and western India, Exclusive Analysis said.
The experts said those responsible were likely to issue a statement of intent explaining their motives for the attack.
