Radicalism increasing in West - report

“We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however,” the report went on.

It lays out a range of dangers – from al-Qaida and Lebanese Hezbollah to non-Muslim radical groups – that pose a “persistent and evolving threat” to the United States over the next three years.

As expected, however, the findings focus most of their attention on the gravest terror problem: Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network.

The report makes clear that al-Qaida in Iraq, which has not yet posed a direct threat to US soil, could become a problem.

“Of note,” the analysts said, “we assess that al-Qaida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland.”

The analysts also found that al-Qaida’s association with its Iraqi affiliate helps the group to energise the broader Sunni Muslim extremist community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives – “including for homeland attacks”.

National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the US government.

These agencies reflect the consensus long-term thinking of top intelligence analysts. Portions of the documents are occasionally declassified for public release.

The White House brushed off critics who allege the administration released the intelligence estimate at the same time as the Senate is debating Iraq.

White House press secretary Tony Snow hit back at the critics today, saying they are “engaged in a little selective hearing themselves to shape the story in their own political ways”.

“We don’t keep it on the shelf and say: ’Let’s look for a convenient time'," Snow said.

“We’re trying to remind people that this is a real threat. This is not an attempt to divert. As a matter of fact … we would much rather – one of the things we’d like to do is call attention to the successes in the field (in Iraq)”.

Democrats said the report was proof that US anti-terrorism efforts were being drained by the Iraq war.

“We must responsibly redeploy our troops out of Iraq, handing responsibility for security over to the Iraqis and leaving only those forces required for limited missions,” said Rep Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

“This will allow us to concentrate our efforts on Afghanistan and the al-Qaida terrorists who attacked us on 9/11.”

House Republican leader John Boehner said the report confirms gains made by President George Bush and blamed Democrats for being too soft on terrorism.

“Retreat is not a new way forward when the safety and security of future generations of Americans are at stake,” he said in a statement.

The new report echoed statements made by senior intelligence officials over the past year, including the assessment of spy agencies that the United States is in a “heightened threat environment”. It also provided new details on their thinking and concerns.

For example, the report says that worldwide counter-terrorism efforts since 2001 have constrained al-Qaida’s ability to attack the US again and convinced terror groups that US soil is a tougher target.

But, the report quickly adds, analysts are concerned “that this level of international co-operation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge”.

The report also found that al-Qaida is likely to continue to focus on high-profile political, economic and infrastructure targets to cause mass casualties, visually-dramatic destruction, economic aftershocks and fear.

It said the group would continue to seek weapons of mass destruction - chemical, biological or nuclear material – and “would not hesitate to use them”.