World forum predicts quick US recovery
The 32nd annual World Economic Forum began in New York today with discussions on where the global economy is headed and how to deal with terrorism.
Against a backdrop of generally peaceful demonstrations and scattered vandalism targeting symbols of corporate America, some 3,000 international business, political, academic and religious figures met at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel behind phalanxes of police.
Some 4,000 police were on duty, with so many concentrated around the conference site it reminded some New Yorkers of the intense security after the September 11 terror attacks.
Despite the high state of alert, there were few arrests, and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani predicted police would maintain order.
‘‘This is a peaceful city, this is a city that understands diversity, this is a city that understands how to deal with large meetings,’’ said Giuliani, who was instrumental in bringing the forum to New York partly in solidarity following September 11.
At a news conference, a top official of a private industry group predicted the US economy would grow 1.5% in 2002.
‘‘My view is that the US recession is over, that November will be viewed as the trough,’’ said Gail Fosler, chief economist at the Conference Board, a business-financed group that issues influential monthly economic reports.
Europe’s recovery will probably take hold in the third and fourth quarters but the pace could be slower than in the US, said Klaus Zimmerman, president of the German Institute for Economic Research.
‘‘We’re struggling with the sins of the past in terms of government spending,’’ he said.
The outlook for Japan remains bleak, said Jacob Frenkel, former head of Israel’s central bank who is president of Merrill Lynch & Co.’s international division.
Japan ‘‘will stay in a recession until it deals with its financial system and banking sector properly,’’ he said.
Besides the worldwide economy, the five-day forum is focusing on such topics as improving security and alleviating poverty around the globe.
A panel of international security experts warned the Bush administration against using force on other countries, saying that could hurt relations with its allies.
They said President George W Bush should use diplomacy instead of military might in his dealings with Iran, Iraq and North Korea, which were identified as rogue states in his State of the Union address Tuesday.
‘‘If you topple Saddam Hussein, there will be another Saddam Hussein somewhere else,’’ said Christoph Bertram, director of the German Institute for International Affairs and Security.
At another seminar, Alain Dieckhoff, research director at France’s Centre for International Studies and Research, said the best way to combat terrorism is to build a strong middle class. ‘‘When you have that, it’s easier to have democratic values and practices,’’ he said.
The forum also offered a chance for diplomacy. Palestinian officials said their parliament speaker, Ahmed Qureia, planned to meet the Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, who is attending the forum.
Among the forum’s other participants are King Abdullah II of Jordan; Kofi Annan, secretary-general of United Nations; Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, president of the Philippines; Michael Dell, chairman and chief executive of Dell Computer, and Microsoft chairman Bill Gates.
Mr Bush won’t attend, but is sending Secretary of State Colin Powell and Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill.
Afghanistan’s interim leader, Hamid Karzai, had been scheduled to give the opening remarks this afternoon but cancelled his appearance because he had to meet in London with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, forum spokesman Charles McLean said.
Outside, police in riot gear stood guard while other officers re-routed traffic and kept protesters behind concrete barriers ringing the site.
Five women were charged with trespassing and reckless endangerment in lower Manhattan for climbing to a building rooftop and unfurling a banner that read, ‘‘Bush and big biz agree that people with AIDS drop dead.’’
Police also reported vandalism at several chain businesses around Manhattan. A man was arrested for defacing the front door of a Starbucks coffee shop, police said.
About two blocks from the Waldorf, several hundred followers of the Chinese meditation sect Falun Gong - which is banned in China - did slow-motion bending and stretching exercises in a cold drizzle behind a police barricade where they hung a banner saying ‘‘Help Stop State Terrorism in China.’’
Nearby, a dozen environmentalists, outnumbered by reporters and camera crews, chanted, ‘‘WEF, you are the weakest link - goodbye!’’
Police officers wearing olive green military helmets and flak jackets looked on. A few officers toted submachine guns.
Authorities hoped to avoid a repeat of last year’s World Economic Forum at its traditional site in the Swiss ski resort of Davos. Protesters there smashed windows, burned cars and clashed with police.
