UK population to be vaccinated against pandemic flu

Plans to vaccinate everyone in the UK against pandemic ‘flu once a potentially-fatal strain emerges were announced by the British government today.

Plans to vaccinate everyone in the UK against pandemic ‘flu once a potentially-fatal strain emerges were announced by the British government today.

Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said 120 million doses – the equivalent of two per person – would be needed to cover the population.

But he said the vaccine could not be created until the exact strain in a future ‘flu pandemic was known.

This means that many people could already be struck down with pandemic ‘flu before the vaccine is available for use, which could take up to six months.

He said that the UK would be “very lucky” not to have pandemic ‘flu arrive here from elsewhere in the world before the vaccine was produced.

But he said it would still help a lot of people who would otherwise get ‘flu.

The Government is inviting vaccine manufacturers to tender for “sleeping contracts”, which would mean they had to build up capacity to meet demand once the strain is identified.

Sir Liam said they were not revealing details of the expected cost of the contracts, but they would negotiate to get the best price possible.

The vaccination announcement was made as the Department of Health published its updated Pandemic Influenza Contingency plan.

Sir Liam said: “We cannot prevent a ‘flu pandemic, but we can reduce its impact.

“One of the most effective counter-measures we can take against a flu pandemic is to make sure we develop and manufacture a vaccine as quickly as possible.

“We will use this vaccine to immunise the UK population and reduce the impact of a pandemic on society.”

Experts, including Sir Liam, have said it is inevitable that a ‘flu pandemic will emerge and could kill more than 50,000 people in the UK alone.

It is widely accepted that the most likely route of a pandemic will be when avian ‘flu in birds mutates into a form which is easily spread from person to person.

Although it is not known when a ‘flu pandemic strain will emerge or where it will start, the most likely source is thought to be Asia.

Fears that the pandemic will eventually hit the UK through have grown in the last week after cases of the potentially lethal H5N1 strain of bird ‘flu were confirmed in Romania, Turkey and Russia.

Around 120 people worldwide have been diagnosed with the H5N1 strain since 2003, leading to 60 deaths.

Bird ‘flu has also been confirmed in Greece, but it is not yet known if this is the dangerous H5N1 strain.

But Sir Liam stressed that the public should be aware of the difference between bird ‘flu and pandemic ‘flu, and that the real risks would emerge when the virus mutates so it is easily spread person to person.

“There is absolutely no chance of a chicken in Romania affecting a person in Burnley,” he said.

As part of today’s updated contingency plan, the Department of Health issued an extensive information pack to GPs to help them prepare for the pandemic and provide answers to concerned patients.

Sir Liam said: “Planning to combat pandemic ‘flu is our number one priority.

“We regard pandemic ‘flu as public health enemy number one and we are on the march against it.

“With good planning and preparation we can reduce the impact of pandemic flu on the health of our population.”

He said the primary care community – including GPs – had been asked to draw up plans detailing how they would respond to a pandemic, which would be checked to make sure they were appropriate.

Sir Liam warned that the annual seasonal ‘flu vaccine, currently given to the elderly and those suffering from respiratory problems, would not be effective against any new ‘flu virus.

Earlier this week, Dr Alan Hay, from the World Influenza Centre, warned that it could take “many months” for a new vaccine to be developed once a pandemic ‘flu strain was identified.

Sir Liam said the purpose of inviting manufacturers to apply for the contract now was to save time when the pandemic became real.

He said that “very little” had changed in the updated ‘flu plan from the version published in March.

It outlines the range of measures being planned to deal with a pandemic, including the use of vaccines and anti-viral drugs.

It suggests measures including travel restrictions, but it is thought these would only delay the arrival of pandemic ‘flu by a few weeks.

Cancelling mass gatherings such as concerts and football matches is also a possibility to slow down the spread of a pandemic.

Face masks could also be given to health workers, although Sir Liam said it was unlikely they would be advised for use by the public.

In the GP guide, the Department of Health estimates that 25% of the population - 15 million people – may suffer from the ‘flu during a pandemic.

Out of a population of 100,000 people, local health care organisations should expect to see at least 1,000 new ‘flu patients a week during a pandemic.

This figure could rise to 5,000 a week at the virus’s peak.

GPs are told that hospital admissions for acute respiratory and related conditions could increase by at least 50%, with around 20,000 new patients a week at the height of the pandemic.

The Government has estimated that around 25% of the working population may need to take sick leave of between five and eight working days over the pandemic - the equivalent of between 5%-7% of the workforce.

Yet more time off work is likely for parents caring for children and other family members.

The Government is currently purchasing 14.6 million treatment courses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, which is not a cure but should contain the early stages of the ‘flu and reduce its duration and severity.

Pandemic ‘flu is different to seasonal ‘flu because it can strike at any time of the year and occur all over the world.

Each wave of the pandemic could last between two and three months.

Experts predict that between two million and 50 million people could die globally.

Avian ‘flu has caused such concern because it can be caught by humans, who could turn into “mixing vessels”, enabling the virus to genetically mutate into a new potentially highly contagious form.

Pigs are also seen as possible mixing vessels because they are susceptible to both human and avian ‘flu.

Again, the virus could mutate in the pig and become potentially lethal to humans.

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