Congress likely to remain same mess
The make-up of Congress is unlikely to be changed by the election which is expected to leave Republicans in control of the House of Representatives and Democrats keeping their majority in the Senate.
No matter who wins the race for the White House the next chief executive will probably face a divided Congress that shows no inclination to end its dysfunction and bridge its ideological chasm. That will make passing any major pieces of legislation difficult.
More than 2 billion dollars has been spent on a barrage of negative ads in the fight for Congress, where the entire 435-seat House and 33 of the 100 Senate seats are at stake. Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican House Speaker John Boehner are likely to retain their posts.
Congress consistently rates low in US public opinion surveys, but incumbents still tend to get re-elected, because voters tend to favour their own lawmakers even if they dislike Congress overall. Incumbents also enjoy huge financial advantages in their re-election bids. In the House, another boost for many incumbents is the once-a-decade redrawing of district boundaries, which has just been completed.
Republicans had hoped to wrest control of the Senate from the Democrats, who were defending 23 seats and losing several retiring veterans. But the Republicans’ quest was marred by the explosive comments their candidates in Indiana and Missouri made about abortion, rape and pregnancy. Solid candidates also boosted the prospects of the Democrats, who are poised to retain their 53-47 advantage or in their best-case scenario even increase it by one. Still, Senate Democrats would remain nowhere near the 60-vote supermajority needed to easily pass legislation under Senate rules.
Democratic strategist Steve McMahon said he worries that with a divided Congress “we can probably expect hyper partisanship and gridlock everywhere. It seems like Americans can expect more of the same.”
No matter who gets elected, expectations for the next Congress will be low. A Bloomberg poll in September found that 55% of Americans said Congress will continue to be an impediment no matter who is elected president. Just 32% said Congress would get the message that lawmakers need to work together on a bipartisan basis.
In the House, where incumbents tend to get re-elected, Democrats could make some gains, but seem unlikely to pick up the 25 seats they need to take control. While some prominent tea party-backed Republicans could fall, they are expected to remain a force that won’t be easy for Mr Boehner, the speaker of the House.
Among the House races getting attention is a close one in Utah, where Mia Love is vying to become the first black Republican woman elected to Congress.
Another first could be achieved in the tight Senate race in Wisconsin, where congresswoman Tammy Baldwin could become the first openly gay US senator.
While the next Congress will be bitterly divided, Republican strategist Terry Holt said that if the next president is brave enough, he might still be able to overcome the partisan rancour and leave some kind of legislative legacy.
“But there is so much ideological division that you will have to risk your political life to get something done in the next Congress,” he said.
