Trying to keep pace with the Brexit train

Far more preparations for Brexit are going on behind the scenes and at a much higher level than Government will admit, writes political correspondent Elaine Loughlin.

Trying to keep pace with the Brexit train

Far more preparations for Brexit are going on behind the scenes and at a much higher level than Government will admit, writes political correspondent Elaine Loughlin.

Our nearest neighbour has landed us in a bit of a predicament.

The UK has effectively told us that they have bought the tickets and will be sending us on mystery trip.

But with the destination still a surprise we must pack for all types of terrain, weather and conditions.

In deciding to leave the EU, Theresa May’s government has set Ireland the unenviable task of planning for the unknown.

The Irish Government, grappling with this uncertainty, has decided to pick a spot and are running to it in the hope that this will be the end point.

The Department of Foreign Affairs, which is co-ordinating the Brexit ready efforts, has set its target for what they call a “central case scenario”.

These plans, which are based around an orderly Brexit with a two-year transition period, include the recruitment of 1,077 customs, health and veterinary officials at ports and airports and a number of supports to help businesses and the agri-sector adapt including a €300m loan scheme announced as part of Budget 2019.

But plans for a more devastating Brexit are also afoot and are being developed quietly in the background.

Preparing for a new and perhaps difficult relationship with the UK had already begun as the ballots papers in the 2016 referendum were still being counted, the first of a series of All-Island Civic Dialogues on Brexit was organised in November 2016.

The month before then taoiseach, Enda Kenny said he would not be appointing a Brexit minister but instead as head of government, would take the lead.

He also set up a Cabinet sub-committee dedicated to the Brexit response.

This was the public indication that the wheels were already in motion.

One senior source said that immediately after the 2016 Brexit poll, all government departments began “preparing for Brexit and preparing for all eventualities”.

“From when Brexit talks started each department had to look at what they had to do to prepare,” the source said, adding that government departments with the support of the Office of Public Works began “scoping exercises” which took in all eventualities including increased presence along the border with Northern Ireland.

Another source said the Government is conscious “there would have to be some thinking outside the box to make sure there there wasn’t too much upheaval”.

Some of this ongoing work has been published, but much of the Government’s contingency planning remains under wraps with the minimum number of people in each department being informed.

Speaking at a Brexit Ready roadshow for businesses in Dublin’s Convention Centre last week, Tánaiste Simon Coveney said: “We are in the background... putting together contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit which is a much more dramatic response because what that would mean is that we would have to have certain things ready to kick in by March 29 next year, and we will have to work with the EU on contingencies for that too.

“Don’t forget, a lot of things you don’t control, it’s done by the EU in terms of trading policy and so on.

Contingency planning for Ireland will involve our domestic planning as well as a partnership with the EU in terms of how the single market and the customs union will react to Britain leaving without a deal and there are many sectoral areas that will require consideration.

Of course, the Government and the select number of civil servants involved in developing these contingency plans will be hoping they will only emerge as a quirky “what could have been” news story when future state papers are released under the 30-year-rule.

On budget day, Mr Coveney said his department and the Government as a whole are now spending and allocating money towards measures that they hope will never have to be rolled-out.

It is clear far more is going on behind the scenes and at a much higher level than Mr Coveney could ever admit.

A hard Brexit that would see the UK leave the EU without any agreement in place is a frightening vista which would impact on every aspect of this country from the securing our energy supply, to getting planes off the ground, to cross-border healthcare agreements as well as the likely economic impacts of lower than expected growth and job creation.

However, if the UK does leave the EU with no agreement in place, one of the most significant threats could come from the lack of a free trade agreement.

This could see the introduction of tariffs which would have to comply with World Trade Organisation levels.

While the Government has, in public anyway, been solely focused on the east-west at our ports and airports, if the backstop hammered out last year does not remain in play after a cliff-edge Brexit, the border with the North will also come into focus.

Many believe that Ireland would be given a “grace period” where goods coming here from the UK could be delivered without any checks in the immediate aftermath of a hard Brexit.

But Fianna Fáil Brexit spokesperson Lisa Chambers was keen to stress that the WTO and the EU would only provide leeway for a limited time as protecting the single market will be the most important thing for other European Union member states.

“It think the EU, other members states, will give us a grace period but they will say you have an exposed border, so there is only so long that they will allow that grace period.

“Eventually, we could have a border between ourselves and mainland Europe if we refuse to check goods coming across the border,” she said.

Our partners in the EU will have a key role to play in our future regardless of what type of Brexit we are faced with.

The European Commission has also developed a number of contingency measures in preparation for a hard Brexit.

It is expected these plan could be published as early as this week.

Alluding to these proposals, Mr Coveney said: “To be honest with you, they will be skeletal agreements, it won’t be a pretty picture and it will be about the reality and the truth of Brexit.”

But with talks stuck at a critical and fragile phase, insiders claim Europe may try to hold off on publishing these proposals.

The hope would be a deal could first be struck with Ms May’s negotiating team and the EU’s worst-case scenario proposals could then be used to focus the minds of those in the House of Commons who will have to ratify any agreement.

While the outcome of the Brexit talks is still far from certain, all sides, the UK, the EU and of course Ireland, want to avoid a hard border at all costs.

Let’s hope that is where we end up.

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