Ireland 2040: Sun, moon, and stars promised to the country

Ireland, as a whole, has won the lotto and can look forward to endless funding for transport, housing, and hospital dream schemes for the next decade. This was the initial impression of the launch of Project Ireland 2040, which resembled a pre-election ard fheis with lots of pomp and ceremony, writes Juno McEnroe

Ireland 2040: Sun, moon, and stars promised to the country

Ireland, as a whole, has won the lotto and can look forward to endless funding for transport, housing, and hospital dream schemes for the next decade. This was the initial impression of the launch of Project Ireland 2040, which resembled a pre-election ard fheis with lots of pomp and ceremony, writes Juno McEnroe

Leo Varadkar and his ministers took to the stage in Sligo and promised the sun, moon, and stars to the country.

At the heart of the plan is the need to prepare for change over the next two decades. This includes examining how many people will live where and what services they need.

The national planning framework, one of two reports launched, aims to rebalance growth between rural and urban areas. But why is it so important?

By 2040, 5.7m people will live in Ireland — an increase of a million. And an extra 660,000 jobs and 500,000 homes will be needed.

A major criticism of the last national spatial strategy in 2002 was that it was undermined by “winners” and “losers”, with local objections over “hubs” or “gateways”. Decentralisation followed it and undermined the strategy, but national investment did not and it was also not given a statutory footing.

The Fine Gael government says it wants to get it right this time, as there is too much sprawl in areas. And so the new framework for the next 20 years has set goals for regions, for building, transport, education and even climate change action.

Development will be split between three regions, in the South, East/Midlands, and North-West. The Government want to build up regional centres and lessen rural isolation, after years of uncoordinated growth.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney noted that if Ireland does not plan, we will see people in cars commuting on average for three hours a day.

And so the NPF intends to reduce the dominance of Dublin, empower other cities and create regional centres, including Athlone and Sligo.

To back up the NPF, the Government launched the national development plan, some €116bn in promised spending on dream projects for towns and cities, including a Metro, 10 hospitals, and new roads nationwide.

This is where the goodies are in Project Ireland. A plethora of new projects was promised, including €12bn for roads, an extra 35,000 homes a year, and €2.2bn for higher education.

The important thing to remember is that these are all promises and not guaranteed. Moreover, many of the projects were announced or promised years back. These include a second runway at Dublin Airport, the Metro, the South-East university, primary health centres, and the National Children’s Hospital.

Nonetheless, there are innovations, including the €500m technology fund for start-ups, €22bn for climate change, €3bn for urban and rural projects, and a new national regeneration and development agency to oversee the use of land.

So where will the money come from? Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe says all is planned under projected growth rates. But, just like the bust before, anything — from Brexit to dramatic changes in the economy — could derail these.

To prevent the grand promises of Project Ireland 2040 becoming forgotten election gimmicks, the Government must show steel and resolve in following through on the radical ambitions. This means fending off local pressure groups and parochial demands.

The public will also want to see - sooner rather than later - the first steps, tracks and blocks for the grander designs launched in Sligo.

At a glance: Key questions answered

What projects are new under Project Ireland 2040?

One of the key initiatives announced is the €22bn climate change action programme. This will include more reforestation across the country and further proposals to upgrade homes. This includes energy efficiency grants rising from €30,000 to €45,000 from 2021, in order to help bring them up to a minimum BER rating B. Funds will also be ringfenced for energy efficient new builds.

The proposal to extend the Metro to south Dublin and for new Luas extensions in the capital as well as in Cork will also be welcome.

There are also moves to remove carbon from public and private transport. So much so, that so that NCT certificates will be denied for carbon emission cars in future decades, encouraging people to buy electric or non-fossil fuel vehicles.

There will also be a joint €3bn rural and urban fund for new projects as well as a new national regeneration and development agency. This will act like Nama and be tasked with driving development on State-owned lands. A number of towns will also be prioritised for growth and developments, including Athone, Sligo, and Letterkenny.

Some of the projects announced sound familiar. Has any of this been launched before?

Yes, is the simple answer. According to Fianna Fáil, some 179 schemes or projects have all been put out before, with some €40bn of the total €116bn, it is claimed, allocated already to projects.

We know about the second runway at Dublin airport as well as the new Metro plans for Dublin. Furthermore, port expansion at Cork has already been planned while the proposed university in the South East has been talked about for some time. Similarly, the National Children’s Hospital and other health facilities in Project 2040 were already announced before this unveiling in Sligo.

What kind of timelines are set down for the projects and what happens if these are missed?

Some of the projects do indeed have projected timeframes, such as the Metro, some of the new health facilities, including ten new hospitals over the next ten years. Equally, some of the climate change targets are strict, but far off. These include the ambition to have 500,000 low-emission cars on Irish roads by 2030. At the moment, there are just 3,000 electric cars on Irish roads so it is difficult to see how this target will be met. The Government is also promising to build at least 25,000 homes a year by 2020, rising to 30-35,000 annually up to 2027. Its record on housing is not good, with many targets recently missed over attempts to tackle the crisis. Indeed, a lot of the promises are very long-term. This includes the plan for an extra 112,000 social houses over the next decade.

Are all the projects, such as transport, roads or health infrastructure, costed under or are they just ideas without any price tag?

Many of the bigger projects are costed. These include the €3bn price tag for the Metro in Dublin, the estimated €750m to €1bn for the new M20 between Limerick and Cork. Another example includes the €2bn urban regeneration and development fund to open up urban developments, include in Cork Docklands, Limerick 2030, Waterford North Quays Strategic Development Zone and in Galway. But it is unclear if linking up the Metro to south Dublin will cost more. Furthermore, plans for high-speed rail to Galway and Cork seem uncosted as do proposals for new hospitals in Cork, Galway and Dublin. The Government has said there will be a number of follow-up announcements in the coming days and weeks.

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