Taken at face value, Regina Doherty’s argument for parallel negotiations between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil on a new confidence-and-supply agreement and next month’s budget is persuasive.
“You certainly don’t leave it until a contract is in its dying days before you start renegotiating. That’s all we want to do,” the employment affairs minister said yesterday.
“There’s no tactics here, there’s no stunts, there’s no nothing ... we’ve all agreed that nobody wants an election, so Fianna Fáil doesn’t want an election, Fine Gael and the Independents don’t want an election, I don’t think the Irish people want an election,” she said, speaking on RTÉ radio.
It may well be true that nobody wants an election in the short-term and that it is important that we retain political stability, as we face the Brexit endgame. It is equally true that time is of the essence: The current agreement is set to end on budget day, October 9.
Yet, as budget negotiations begin today, it is hard to take the minister’s comments at face value, given the high-stakes antics indulged by her boss, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
In a letter to Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin last week, Varadkar sought a two-year extension to the arrangement, the details of which were immediately made public.
If his desire for an extension for the remainder of the current Dáil was intended to be neither a tactic nor a stunt, why not speak with Mr Martin in person or by phone?
Such a discussion, preferably behind closed doors, would have allowed both party leaders to exchange ideas as well as argument, without their differences becoming a major political issue.
The result of communicating by letter, ironically at a time when dozens of rural post offices are to close, increases, rather than diminishes, the likelihood of an early general election. Not surprisingly, it evoked a terse response from Martin, who insisted — also by letter — that any extension would not be considered until the budget was agreed.
He has reason to be distrustful of Varadkar. When the two met in Killarney, for an hour, in July, the Taoiseach infuriated the Fianna Fáil leader by revealing, shortly afterwards, that he was seeking an extension to the 2016 agreement.
The result is a breakdown in whatever trust remains between the two party leaders and we now have a stand-off that threatens to cause the kind of political instability the Taoiseach says he wants to avoid.
Despite what Leo Varadkar and Regina Doherty say, the suspicion remains that Fine Gael want an early general election. The accession of Varadkar to the Fine Gael leadership and to the position of Taoiseach, in May of last year, has changed the political landscape.
Under Enda Kenny, Fianna Fáil was consistently ahead of opinion polls, but Fine Gael are in the ascendancy now. The latest polls show FG at 34% and FF at 21%, one per cent below Sinn Féin.
However, as Harold Wilson so memorably put it: “A week is a long time in politics.” The housing crisis alone could scupper Fine Gael’s lead. If an election is Varadkar’s real game, he should be careful what he wishes for.