While Solidarity-People Before Profit TD, Brid Smith, heralded yesterday’s decision as “the beginning of the end of the Eighth Amendment”, the reality is more complicated,
.Despite officially voting to recommend repealing the Eighth Amendment, removing the article from the Constitution, and giving the Oireachtas the sole power to draw up future laws, the decision still needs to overcome a series of hurdles between now and the likely May, 2018 referendum.
The first of these is the most straightforward, with the committee due to draw up a “short and concise” report, setting out its recommendations by tomorrow evening, before officially publishing it with the Oireachtas next Wednesday.
The Dáil and Seanad will debate the recommendations after the Christmas break, in mid-January, before voting on whether to support, change, or block them.
While, in theory, this stage should be straightforward, it may prove troublesome, as both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have free votes on abortion.
It is far from clear if the committee’s recommendations will be backed in full by the Oireachtas, with a further potential difficulty being whether Sinn Féin TDs and senators will be allowed by their party to endorse the findings in full.
After the Dáil and Seanad debates, the decision by the two Houses will be sent to Cabinet, which will then draw up the wording for the likely May, 2018 referendum to change the Eighth Amendment.
As previously confirmed by Health Minister, Simon Harris, draft legislation on what will replace the Eighth Amendment, should it be repealed, will be published in tandem with the referendum question, allowing the public to know the impact of a repeal vote.
With both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil giving members a free vote, the referendum campaign will be a further hurdle for the committee’s recommendations to overcome.
It also remains unclear if Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, will back the referendum and there are also concerns that a straight yes-no question could risk a repeal vote not being backed.
One hurdle passed, and many more waiting down the line, meaning Ms Smith’s claim that this is “the beginning of the end” should more aptly be changed to simply ‘the end of the beginning’.