With formal talks between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens due to commence on Thursday, attention is shifting to what can they agree upon to do in government over the next four to five years.
Even at this initial stage the main broad strokes of the likely programme for government are clear and the main priorities will include:
A national recovery plan
Already agreed in principle by all sides is the idea of a dedicated plan to rescue the economy from the current Covid-19 emergency.
This will include business supports, regional supports, plans to help support people working from home, targeted tax breaks to kickstart certain industries like tourism, hospitality, aviation and construction. The establishment of a special Covid-19 Oireachtas Committee will help drive and shape this plan.
Fianna Fáil is adamant that this recovery, unlike the last one, cannot allow an urban-rural divide emerge. Fine Gael, too says it is demanding a so-called ‘new deal’ for rural Ireland. How achievable such matters are with the Greens in power with them is in question.
Housing
On foot of the General Election result in February, there is an acceptance from the three parties that a much greater role for the State in building houses, social and affordable, as well as much greater powers for the Land Development Agency to deliver on much more ambitious building targets.
Just how the LDA and local authorities will work together remains a challenge to be figured out but housing is likely to be a core element of any programme for government.
Health
In a matter of weeks, layer upon layer of needless bureaucracy in the health system have been swept aside in order to deliver an adequate response to the Covid-19 crisis. Despite the cost, one of the most obvious gains has been the increase in intensive care unit beds and both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil accept that that additional capacity must remain.
The temporary nationalisation of the country’s private beds will be unwound unless major pay-outs to private consultants take place but the road to universal health care, as envisaged under Slaintecare, has been expedited.
Taxes and Social Welfare
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have so far committed to no cuts to core social welfare rates and no tax increases in order to meet the cost of dealing with COvid-19. How realistic that promise is remains to be seen, but given how cheap it currently is to borrow money, it is likely the programme for government will include even a qualified commitment to avoid such austerity measures.
Climate
The concession by Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin to Eamon Ryan in relation to achieving the 7% reduction in carbon emissions was needed to “coax” the Greens to the table, no matter how watery a promise it is.
But any programme for government which includes the Greens is likely to see an ambitious suite of measures in sectors such as transport, energy and farming. The parties have already agreed to a “just transition” to ensure all regions and sectors can move towards a zero emissions target by 2050 as outlined by the European Green Deal.
Social Contract
Included in the joint framework document between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, dealing with issues like benefits, pensions and childcare in order to help address work life balance issues.