Comment: Blueprint drawn up in bid to win a shock victory

Hit his rival hard, encourage a crowded cannon fodder candidate list, and then wait to reap the second preference vote transfer rewards which could push him on to a shock victory.

Comment: Blueprint drawn up in bid to win a shock victory

Hit his rival hard, encourage a crowded cannon fodder candidate list, and then wait to reap the second preference vote transfer rewards which could push him on to a shock victory.

Businessman Seán Gallagher is remaining silent on whether he should enter the presidential race, but that does not mean his supporters are not plotting on how victory could be achieved.

And, while the popular view suggests any entry will be pointless given Mr Higgins’ approval rating, those on his team have already drawn up a strategy they believe could see him snatch victory out of his 2011 rival’s grasp.

The plan, based on previously unreleased sections of an internal opinion poll, amounts to a three-stage process involving a packed presidential race, legitimate questions over Mr Higgins’ term in office, and second preference vote transfers.

And, if it works out as hoped, Mr Gallagher’s supporters believe the strategy could see a shock victory currently seen as unlikely become a reality in October after weeks of chipping away at Mr Higgins’ likely early lead.

Should Mr Gallagher enter the race as expected by the end of this month, he will on the surface be playing catch up with contenders such as Gavin Duffy, Joan Freeman, Kevin Sharkey and Padraig Ó Ceidigh.

Gavin Duffy
Gavin Duffy

However, according to the theory Mr Gallagher’s team is working off, that is not necessarily a problem.

Given the fact Mr Higgins is widely expected to have a significant first preference lead in any race, Mr Gallagher’s team has targeted the need to win second preference votes in order to give their candidate a realistic fighting chance. And on that basis, the crowded field that has become apparent in recent weeks and been encouraged by Mr Gallagher’s open letters to councils is exactly what he would want.

Such a transfer swing is likely, Mr Gallagher’s supporters suggest, to be further helped by the fact the internal poll has also indicated that while the public likes Mr Higgins, beneath the surface they have concerns over certain aspects of his time in power.

Focussing in on these issues, it is claimed, could help to encourage people to consider other options, with Mr Gallagher supposedly the most likely to benefit from any voter move away from the current incumbent.

And while it is still more of a long-shot than a sure thing, the dual criticism and crowded field approaches could, in theory, see Mr Gallagher gain significant ground on Mr Higgins in this way, potentially seeing him pip his 2011 rival to the presidency.

The blueprint-stage strategy is of course still only in theory, and Mr Gallagher has yet to make any public decision on whether to enter the race or not. However, they indicate that while Mr Higgins may look set to ease to victory right now, that may change before the vote in late October.

The presidential race is as ever a marathon, not a sprint, and one potential contender is still only lacing up his runners.

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