What now after House of Commons rejects Theresa May’s new proposals?
What is going on?
On Monday night, Theresa May travelled to Strasbourg for last-ditch talks with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
They agreed three points, namely: To not change the withdrawal agreement; To give further legal assurances to London, described by Ms May as binding, that the backstop can be sent to an independent arbitration panel if the EU acts in bad faith in the two-year post-Brexit period; Thirdly, Britain can say it can “unilaterally” leave the backstop if this happens, to end fears of being trapped in the deal.
At an emergency Cabinet meeting, Ireland accepted the three-pronged deal after EU advice.
What went wrong?
In simple terms, reality raised its ugly head. As was quickly pointed out, the crucial third point only said the EU agreed Britain can say it can leave the backstop unilaterally, and did not say the EU agreed Britain can leave — a subtle, but vital difference. In a statement to the House of Commons yesterday, Britain’s attorney general Geoffrey Cox dealt the deal a fatal blow, saying while the changes reduced the backstop trap “risk”, it did not remove it. In response, the DUP and the Conservative Party’s hard-line Brexiteer think-tank, the European Research Group, said they will not back the deal.
What does this mean for Britain?
The drama in London has thrown Britain, never mind Brexit, into fresh chaos with Ms May facing growing calls to resign, rumours of a potential snap British election and the Brexit solution labelled a ‘phantom’ by Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. The House of Commons heavily rejected the deal last night. Today, MPs will vote on whether to rule out a no-deal crash-out Brexit, before voting tomorrow on whether to seek a March 29 deadline extension.
What will it mean for Ireland and the EU?
Despite a genuine scare, Ireland’s position remains unchanged. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said yesterday the withdrawal agreement and the backstop remains unchanged as Monday’s developments are complementary and do not replace them. He also separated Britain’s unilateral declaration view by noting it does not change the backstop as the EU has simply noted the British move, not accepted it.
And what does this mean for Brexit itself?
Take your pick, and a deep breath, before choosing between — a crash-out no-deal Brexit, a deadline extension potentially to May 24, Ms May’s resignation, a snap British election, a second referendum, or Brexit not happening at all.
