Bird flu spread 'increasing chance of human disease'

“Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be,” he said in an interview with the Associated Press.

“Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human virus transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time.”

Nabarro said the arrival of bird flu in Nigeria should be “a strong wake-up call” to countries to ensure that their veterinary services were on alert, and that health services quickly identified unexpected clusters of disease that could represent the start of a pandemic.

“We have got bird flu now in south-east Asia, central Asia, eastern Europe, and west Africa,” he said. “Compared with eight months ago, this is a major extension of the avian influenza epidemic.”

Nabarro said control measures had helped to contain the spread but bird flu was still expanding across the world, “putting at risk the health of people who are living intimately with poultry”.

He said the increase in the quantity of the virus in the world was increasing the overall chance of mutations that could then spread into humans.

“That’s why we get so concerned about the spread of the virus, because we want to do everything we can to reduce the opportunity for mutation,” Nabarro said.

He says one of the urgent needs is to establish how avian influenza reached west Africa.

“The likely means is by migrating wild birds travelling from north to south, and one of the main migratory routes passes from Siberia through the Black Sea area, including Crimea and on to west Africa,” Nabarro said.

“The alternative is that the virus arrived in birds that are being traded - and if that is the case, they would have been smuggled, as Nigeria had banned import of birds from avian influenza-affected areas during the last two years.”

UN experts have just received the genetic sequence of virus samples taken from the farm in Kaduna where the H5N1 strain of bird flu was discovered.

Over the next few days, Nabarro said, the World Organisation for Animal Health and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation would try to match that sequence with the genetic sequence of viruses from birds in other countries affected by bird flu.

“If it turns out that H5N1 was carried to west Africa by migratory birds, we need to be prepared for the possibility that within the next six months it could be brought back to the northern hemisphere – but perhaps along a different flyway,” he said.

“And that could mean that countries in western Europe and North America should be bracing themselves for the possible introduction of H5N1 avian influenza.”

Nabarro said the challenge facing governments throughout Africa “will be to pick up instances early of suspected bird flu, quarantine the affected farms and communities so that the birds are not moved in or out, and then to stamp out the infection through selective culling”.

The single most important thing governments can do, he says, is to put a total ban on bird movements in any area where bird flu is suspected.