French referendum too close to call
The French referendum on Europe’s first constitution is proving a nail-biter. With less than two weeks to go, opponents and supporters are effectively tied in polls – a dead heat expected to continue until every vote is counted.
Three polls published today showed opponents of the landmark treaty edging ahead in the countdown to France’s closely watched May 29 referendum – a development political analysts said means little.
The see-saw of French public opinion on whether to accept the EU constitution has wavered in recent weeks from “no” to “yes” and, now, back again to “no” – riding a wave of domestic issues that often have little to do with the proposed treaty itself.
“The balance will continue to shift up to the last minute of the vote counting,” said Francois Gere, president of the French Institute of Strategic Analysis. The trio of surveys showing a “no” win, he says, “indicates nothing at all.”
Every time one side gains a lead, the other mobilises its supporters and a shift is reflected in polls.
Many analysts say anti-constitution campaigners have been better at getting their message out.
One high-profile campaigner for a “no” vote, former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, is credited in part for the latest trend.
Fabius, the No 2 Socialist official, has broken from the official line of his party, which backs the constitution. He argues that the EU text is too free-market oriented and wouldn’t protect French labour rights, tapping into a highly sensitive subject here.
