Early tallies predict struggle for a number of Coalition candidates; Joan Burton in danger

Update 11.51am: DUBLIN MID WEST: Based on a 100% tally, Sinn Féin's Eoin O Broin and Fine Gael's Frances Fitzgerald will be easily elected on the first count.

Their projected (but still unofficial) first preference votes are 9,480 and 8,963 respectively, with a quota of 8,550.

Fianna Fáil's John Curran is expected to be in third place after the first count with 6,754 votes, followed by AAA-PBP's Gino Kenny 4,505, who is widely expected to see off any transfers challenge from Social Democrats Anne Marie McNally (2,580) or Labour's Joanna Tuffy (2,047).

The expected first preference poll - due to be officially announced in the next hour - means the four-seat constituency will change from an even split between Fine Gael and Labour to one each of Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and AAA-PBP, with two TDs (Tuffy and Fine Gael's Derek Keating) at real risk of losing their seats and Labour's Robert Dowds not putting his name forward due to retirement.

Meanwhile in Dublin West, the full tally shows there will be a dog fight between Labour, AAA-PBP and Sinn Féin.

Tánaiste Joan Burton is now facing the possibility of losing her seat as the final tally put her neck-and-neck with Ruth Coppinger and Paul Donnelly. All three candidates are between 14.9% and 15.4%

Leo Varadkar is on 19.5%. However he is now not expected to be elected on the first count and so it may be close to 4pm before the first of the four seats is filled.

Joan Burton


The early tallies in the general election campaign are showing Fine Gael and Labour getting a hammering from the electorate.

It confirms the indications from two exit polls showing just around a third of people voted for the outgoing coalition.

Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Independents and smaller parties have seen significant increases in support.

A potential coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is at the centre of a lot of speculation this morning.

That is despite it being ruled out by Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin repeatedly in recent weeks.

General Secretary Sean Dorgan has said there is no change at the moment, with the outcome still unknown: “I mean the position of Fianna Fáil has been during the campaign, has been up to yesterday and remains today the position as outlined by Micheál Martin, as outlined by our front bench, as outlined by all of our spokespeople during the campaign.

“Now, we are in the early stages of the count, we have had no first count yet.

“We are dealing with tallies, generally the tallies are usually accurate enough but it is early days, we have got to see what the outcome is going to be.”

These early tallies do carry a health warning as they often don't give a full geographic spread in constituencies.

But already some big names could be in trouble.

Among them the Deputy leader of Fine Gael, James Reilly in Dublin Fingal where he has secured just 7% of votes in the 18% of boxes tallied.

In Dun Laoghaire the return of Fianna Fáil's Mary Hanafin is looking less likely with the tallies so far showing Fine Gael doing better in that constituency than they have done nationally.

In Dublin Bay South the Renua leader Lucinda Creighton has a real battle on her hands.

In Cork Junior Health Minister Kathleen Lynch is now tipped to lose her seat.

Half of boxes in Dublin West - home of Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton have now been tallied and she has performed better than many expected.

Check out: GE16 live blog: The count


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