10,000 more deaths if virus reproduction rate had not fallen - chief clinical officer
An additional 10,000 people would have died from Covid-19 had the reproduction of the virus remained at the same rate as the beginning of March, the country’s Chief Clinical Officer has said.
Speaking at a HSE briefing on the outbreak of the coronavirus, Dr Colm Henry said that the current reproductive, or R number, was between 0.3 and 0.8. That means that each person infected with the virus has in turn infected less than one other person on average.
At the beginning of March, that figure was between 2.0 and 2.5. Dr Henry said that had that continued and physical distancing measures not been taken, Ireland would likely have seen 12,000 deaths by the end of last week. Overall, the figure is 1,195 as of yesterday morning.
"It’’s worth considering that if that R value had remained at 2.4 - which is not even the highest it would have been at the peak of its infectivity - we would have seen 12,000 deaths by May 7."
Dr Henry said that the number of people in ICU facilities around Ireland had halved since the beginning of April, as well as the positivity rate for those tested falling to from 20% around 3%.
He said that there were "positive trends" which "give us hope", including that over 70% of people had now recovered from the illness.
In total, 72 people remained in ICUs as of Saturday night, down 55% on the peak of 160, with a further 543 people in hospitals with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and another 196 suspected cases.
However, despite those encouraging signs, the CEO of the HSE Paul Reid said that now was not the time to for the public to relax.
He said that it was vital that Ireland’’s hospital capacity needed to remain high for non-Covid patients so that normal services within the health system could resume.
“We need to keep capacity under 80% and protect the public and staff from Covid-19.”
Mr Reid’’s words echoed those of Health Minister Simon Harris, who tweeted that restrictions are to be eased from May 18, not sooner.
“It’s dangerous. Every day counts. The reason these restrictions are in place until then: to save your life and keep your loved ones well.”
Mr Harris urged people to remember the 72 patients in ICUs who are suffering from the illness.
On the subject of personal protective equipment (PPE), Mr Reid said it was likely that over a €1 billion would be spent on masks, gowns, gloves and other materials this year.
Mr Reid said that the cost of PPE was projected to be €250 million per quarter due to a number of factors including high demand, rising costs and the added distribution of the items.
"However, the cost of not investing in these items is a lot less than the cost to society of not unlocking that funding."
Mr Reid said that 60 flights carrying over 12 million items of PPE had landed on Irish soil last week and said further deliveries would continue, with N-95 masks and gowns the most difficult items to procure.
He said that Ireland was not yet in a position to build a stockpile of PPE, with the weekly demand for masks - nine million - being the equivalent of 11 Liberty Halls when stacked up.
