Stephen Cadogan: Waiting for the storms to pass
The results of this year’s Irish Examiner/ICMSA opinion poll may point to a farming sector punch-drunk after the toughest winter-spring weather most of them have endured, followed by an unprecedented summer drought, with Brexit approaching like a rapidly changing tropical superstorm, writes .
Farmers may be battening down the hatches, until Brexit and other worries pass.
Unfortunately, the hatches may have to stay down until January 2021, if the UK doesn’t leave the EU until then, after a proposed transition phase.
The poll shows optimism increasing compared to last year, but at its second lowest level in six years, while pessimism rose to its second highest level in six years.
Lack of confidence is also indicated in the 34% who say their farm debt is too high, compared to only 21% last year, 24% in 2016, and 19% in 2015.
Plans to cut back their livestock numbers in order to cope with bad weather are revealed by 43%.
Even 48% of farmers under 35 are thinking along these lines, according to the poll.
Dairy farmers planning no change in output, or to decrease their output, have increased to 53% this year, compared to 45% last year and 34% in 2015.
This figure went to 57% in 2016, the year Irish milk prices went as low as 24 cent; now prices are at about 32c.
Farmers in the poll indicated very little inclination to switch to a different farming enterprise by 2025, which may also be a sign of indecision in the face of complete Brexit uncertainty.
If the worst comes to the worst, Brexit, or an EU trade deal with South America, could kill off the Irish beef within the next few months. But most of the 70 farmers in the poll who participate in the Beef Data and Genomics Programme said they will continue suckler farming at their current level (70%) or increase it (3%), when the BDGP ends. In order to earn BDGP payments, most of them must stay in the scheme until 2020.
Reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from a survey of such a small sample, but the finding supports the theory that farmers won’t make big decisions until the Brexit and Mercosur dust settles (17% said they will cut back their suckler farming; 7% said they will get out of suckler farming completely).
The other hovering stormcloud farmers are waiting for is climate change itself, and how it will affect farming, viewed as a major source of the greenhouse gases blamed for climate change. As they welter in a fog of indecision, an astonishing 22% of farmers agree that the impact of climate change may lead them to exit farming altogether.
Do farmers expect national leaders to appear, and point the way forward for them at this time of uncertainty? No, according to this poll, in which only a minority indicated they were impressed by any of our political leaders.
