Extreme weather patterns heighten global warming awareness and discussion

Thu, 23 Aug, 2018 - 12:28

It has been known for over 30 years that the world is getting warmer, mainly due to manmade greenhouse gases, writes Eamonn Pitts

A wildfire in Canada’s Alberta region in 2016 was that country’s costliest disaster ever, at over €3 billion.

Many scientists say it was caused by summer weather “stalling”, due to greenhouse-gas emissions interfering with circulation patterns high up in the sky.

They say it happened again this year, in North America, Europe and parts of Asia —with summer conditions stalling for several days or weeks, and turning into extremes, whether heatwaves resulting in droughts, health risks and wildfires; or relentless rainfall resulting in floods.

This extreme weather pattern, and publication of other new reports, have helped to raise awareness of and discussion of global warming to new high levels.

With the failure to reduce emissions being constantly highlighted, and the agricultural sector facing particular criticism, it’s time to reflect on climate change, on what commitments have been made, and the implications of not achieving them, in particular for the agricultural sector and for rural society.

Global warming

By now, there is little argument that the world is getting warmer. The scientific establishment have settled on using the term “climate change”, but the phrase “global warming” captures the human experience better.

It has been known for over 30 years that the world is getting warmer, and that the cause is manmade. The main source is the increased presence in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. These gases have been generated by human activity, particularly in the last 150 years, mainly by the countries of the developed world, including ourselves in more recent years.

Scientists warn that this process is likely to continue, with catastrophic consequences in rising ocean levels flooding many coastal cities, and increased desertification on land, leading to reduced food supplies and famine.

Those who suffer most from global warming (in the form of drought and increased flooding) are mostly in underdeveloped, tropical countries.

Solving the global warming problem is more important than solving the challenges of feeding the world, reducing poverty, or inequality.

Ireland’s greenhouse gases

The greenhouse gases produced in Ireland come from:

Agriculture, 32% (mainly belching of methane by cattle and sheep, and use of fertiliser).

Electricity generation (20%, through burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and turf, to generate electricity).

Transport, (20%) (burning petrol and diesel in motor vehicles, trains and aeroplanes).

Manufacturing (11%).

Domestic (10%, mainly home heating).

This pattern is substantially different from other developed countries, which have much larger industrial sectors and relatively smaller agricultural sectors. And their agricultural sectors are not dominated by bovines, having much larger cereal and crop components. The only country with a similar pattern of greenhouse gas emissions to ours is New Zealand.

Kyoto Protocol

The first international action to tackle this problem was the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty which committed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This treaty became effective in 2005, and targets were set for the period 2008 to 2012. An amendment in 2012 set new targets for 2020.

However, only 37 countries have binding targets, including the EU 28. Canada, the USA and Russia are among the countries which did not accept new targets.

The 2008-2012 target set for the EU was to reduce emissions 8% compared to 1990.However, Ireland was allowed an increase of 13% in emissions compared with 1990. In practice, our emissions rose by 23%.

Emissions in many of the newer eastern EU member states fell by more than 40%, because of the collapse of their heavy industry in the post-Communist period.

The overall EU target was achieved, without any penalty being imposed on us.

Targets for 2020 and 2030

The new 2013-2020 Kyoto target for the EU is an overall reduction of 20% in emissions, compared to 1990.

These emissions have been divided into two categories:

emissions from large industrial sources such as electricity generation and heavy industry, which are being addressed at an EU level, predominantly through trading allowances. The target here is to reduce these emissions by 43% from 2005 to 2030. Over 100 large Irish companies and institutions are in this scheme, and are entitled to buy or sell emissions.

Emissions from other activities, including agriculture, transport, domestic heating and waste, are to be addressed at member state level. These account for about 70% of our emissions.

Ireland has a target to reduce these emissions by 20% from 2005 (not 1990) levels, over the 2013-2020 period.

A further target of a 30% reduction has been set for 2030. It is important to note (because of the penalties involved) that the target for the Irish Government to reduce emissions is confined to the agriculture, transport, domestic and waste sectors.

If there are achievements in reducing emissions in electricity generation or in heavy industry such as cement, this will be welcome, but will not affect the 30% target.

Next week: the likely measures for Ireland to achieve 2020 and 2030 emissions targets, and their implications