Why has Syriza triumphed in the Greek elections?
After six years of recession, mass unemployment and collapsing living standards, Greek voters have finally had enough. The radical leftist party has swept to power with a promise to throw off the policies of draconian budget cuts imposed from Brussels and Berlin and inject new life into the Greek economy, raising the minimum wage, recruiting thousands of public sector workers and delivering generous new welfare benefits.
Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s charismatic young leader, has said that he is going to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s €240bn bailout imposed by the so-called “troika” of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Effectively, it means persuading the country’s creditors to write-off a large chunk of its debts.
Badly, in a word. In Germany – Greece’s biggest creditor – the Bundesbank has warned the new government in Athens not to jeopardise the rescue programme put in place in 2010. Politicians in Berlin are not happy – to put it mildly – that German taxpayers are effectively being asked to pick up the tab for the Greeks.
It looks to be shaping up into a battle of nerves. Expect some tense negotiations over the next few weeks as the fledgling Greek government tries to work out a new accommodation with its creditors. While the EU may permit some restructuring of the bailout terms there’s no enthusiasm for another big debt write-off. On the other side, have raised expectations sky high during the election campaign, Mr Tsipras is under pressure to deliver a deal that will bring tangible benefits for beleaguered Greek voters.
Both Syriza and Brussels are adamant they do not want that to happen. Defaulting on Greece’s €330bn debt would be the nuclear option – almost certainly plunging the country back into deep depression – with unpredictable consequences for the entire eurozone. Nevertheless, there are real differences between the two sides and it is unclear if – or how – they can be bridged.
There are warnings that Syriza’s victory will increase economic uncertainty in Europe. Anti-austerity parties in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal will be heartened by the results while the euro has seen a further fall in value against the dollar. However the fears of “contagion” spreading across the eurozone have receded as a result of measures put in place by the European Central Banks since 2012- including last week’s announcement of €1.1trn of quantitative easing.