Two fifths of US adults 'will develop diabetes'
Two fifths of people in the US will develop Type 2 diabetes during their lifetime, a major study suggests.
For some ethnic minorities the picture is even bleaker. More than half of Hispanics and black women are likely to be affected by the disease, say researchers.
Scientists analysed data on around 600,000 American adults to estimate trends in lifetime diabetes risk between 1985 and 2011.
They found that over the 26 years of the study, the average 20-year-old man’s chances of developing Type 2 diabetes doubled from 20% to 40%.
For a woman the same age, it rose from 27% to 39% in the same time span.
The biggest increases were seen for both Hispanic men, and non-Hispanic black women.
Study leader Dr Edward Gregg, from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, said: “Soaring rates of diabetes since the late 1980s and longer overall life expectancy in the general population have been the main drivers of the striking increase in the lifetime risk of diabetes over the last 26 years.
“At the same time, a large reduction in death rates in the US population with diabetes has reduced the average number of years lost to the disease. However, the overwhelming increase in diabetes prevalence has resulted in an almost 50% increase in the cumulative number of years of life lost to diabetes for the population as a whole: years spent living with diabetes have increased by 156% in men and 70% in women.
“As the number of diabetes cases continue to increase and patients live longer, there will be a growing demand for health services and extensive costs. More effective lifestyle interventions are urgently needed to reduce the number of new cases in the USA and other developed nations.”
The findings are published in the journal The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.
Type 2 diabetes occurs when the body progressively stops responding to the hormone insulin, causing blood sugar levels to rise.
Unlike the autoimmune Type 1 version of the disease, it is strongly linked to obesity and lifestyle.
According to latest estimates, around 2.9 million people in the UK – or 4.5% of the population – have diagnosed diabetes. All but 10% of these cases are the Type 2 condition.
Writing in the journal, Dr Lorraine Lipscombe, from the University of Toronto in Canada, said: “The trends reported by Gregg and colleagues are probably similar across the developed world, where large increases in diabetes prevalence in the past two decades have been reported.
“Primary prevention strategies are urgently needed. Excellent evidence has shown that diabetes can be prevented with lifestyle changes. However, provision of these interventions on an individual basis might not be sustainable. Only a population-based approach to prevention can address a problem of this magnitude.
“Prevention strategies should include optimisation of urban planning, food-marketing policies, and work and school environments that enable individuals to make healthier lifestyle choices. With an increased focus on interventions aimed at children and their families, there might still be time to change the fate of our future generations by lowering their risk of Type 2 diabetes.”
