Chances of Brexit talks moving onto trade by October 'close to zero'
The chances of Brexit talks moving on to the future trade relationship by October as planned are "in the neighbourhood of zero", a former European Council president has warned.
And Herman van Rompuy dismissed suggestions that slow progress could be blamed on the inflexibility of EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, who he said was "fully backed" by influential European countries like Germany and France.
The UK is pressing for EU negotiators to move swiftly to the second phase of discussions, covering trade, but Brussels insists that this cannot happen until "sufficient progress" is made on withdrawal issues, including Britain's exit bill.
Brexit Secretary David Davis warned on Tuesday that discussions on the bill - estimated to come to between £50-80 billion - may not be completed until the end of the two-year negotiation period in 2019, and insisted that the EU must show "imagination and flexibility" to allow trade talks to happen simultaneously.
But Mr van Rompuy said that the UK needed to provide more "clarity" about its intentions and warned that without a "breakthrough" on the divorce bill, trade talks could even be pushed back after December.
Mr van Rompuy told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I'm not a negotiator, (but from) what I hear and what I read in the press, the chances that we are ready in October are in the neighbourhood of zero."
Asked if progress could be delayed beyond December, he replied: "Let's hope that we have a breakthrough. The latest declarations are not reassuring, but let's hope... If there is no breakthrough, for instance on the financial settlement..."
Mr van Rompuy said that Mr Davis's suggestion that the divorce bill may not be agreed for 18 months sent "a bad signal", as it indicated that insufficient progress had been made to move on to trade talks as the UK wishes.
And he rejected British complaints about Mr Barnier's supposed inflexibility.
"Michel Barnier is working on behalf of the European Council," he said. "I think he is fully backed by Germany, by France and by most of the other countries, if not all the countries.
"So when there is a reproach to make, you can't make it to Michel Barnier.
"For the EU at this moment - and it will not change - the unity of the 27 is the most important thing. It is not a question of flexibility. The position of the EU is very clear, the position of the UK Government is not so clear, and in some ways is not clear at all."
The "most rational" position for the UK would be to seek to remain in the single market and customs union during a transition period away from EU membership, Mr van Rompuy said.
But he suggested that this would be difficult to achieve if the proposals for future migration rules set out in a leaked Home Office paper were adopted.
"If you are not accepting one of the four freedoms - freedom of movement for people and for workers - then you have a problem," he said.
"Good luck for those who have to negotiate a smooth transition that gives sufficient stability to the economy. For me, it is hampering a stable transition period."
Mr van Rompuy said he had "no idea" how much the UK would eventually be asked to pay to the EU on withdrawal, but said "compared to the British GDP, it is not that important".
The key to breaking the deadlock on the divorce bill would be agreeing a methodology on how it should be calculated, he said.
"If a reproach is made about flexibility, the other side is asking for much more clarity."
