EU leaders won’t smile just yet as Brexit still has some way to go
Leo Varadkar trusts Theresa May. At least, that’s what he told journalists as he arrived for the crucial leaders’ summit in Brussels, writes .
After attempts by London to downplay the deal on a frictionless border and aligned regulations with the EU this week, Varadkar still has “confidence” in the British prime minister.
Such diplomatic language is not surprising from the Taoiseach, given the win for the Government in round one of the Brexit talks, concerning the border in the North.
This week is Ireland’s moment after a hard-fought diplomatic and political campaign to ensure there are no fresh borders with the North. But Varadkar was unlikely to waltz into the Europa building in Brussels.
Leaders today will agree that “sufficient progress” has been made on phase I Brexit talks on citizenship rights, Britain’s divorce bill and the North. The real test is yet to come. And Varadkar knows this. The border issue looks resolved. But it is entangled in the fragile negotiations on trade that lie ahead and that EU members are signalling may not begin until March. Any fallout on those could hurt Britain, Ireland, or indeed other EU members. Business is business, after all.
EU Council president Donald Tusk put it aptly yesterday arriving for the summit: “By the way, I have no doubt that the real test of our unity will be the second phase of the Brexit talks.”
So what does Ireland hope to achieve in those trade talks, which must be completed ahead of Britain’s EU exit in March 2019?
Dublin wants Britain’s customs arrangements to be as close as possible to the status quo.
“The best for us would be if, literally the next day, there was no change,” an Irish negotiating source told the Irish Examiner.
Agri-food trade with Britain will top the agenda. In total, some €1bn in trade crosses the Irish Sea every week. Other exposed sectors include aviation and fisheries.
But May and her cabinet must agree their own trade priorities before the EU negotiating side set down their red lines, including for Ireland. That is likely why the trade talks will not kick off in earnest until March.
Two models are on the table, for now. Ireland would like Britain to be close to Norway’s trade model, with involvement in the single market and the customs union. However, Britain wants an advanced Canadian model, giving it free trade but no role in the single market and tariffs arranged on an ad-hoc basis.
Varadkar trusts May, for the moment. But Brexit has some way to go. As phase one is agreed today, EU leaders won’t smile just yet.
