Business optimism slipped last month as growth in the economy slowed, according to a new survey.
Most companies said they were still performing well, although export orders fell and investment intentions were said to be "mixed".
The Institute of Directors said economic activity peaked in the first quarter of 2000 and fell back for the rest of the year.
Employment, output and profits growth all fell back last month, and manufacturing continued to under-perform the rest of the economy.
Ruth Lea, head of policy at the IoD, said there were risks to the economy, including the impact of what would happen in the United States.
"But we are cautiously optimistic about the American economy. The markets' panic at the beginning of the year looks overdone and we believe a hard landing should be avoided," she said.
The IoD saw no need for the Bank of England to be "panicked" into interest rate cuts, she added.