FF back at the centre of Irish politics - what now for the soldiers of destiny?

Fianna Fáil is back as a major player in Irish politics. But its next move could make or break the party, writes political reporter Fiachra Ó Cionnaith.

FF back at the centre of Irish politics - what now for the soldiers of destiny?

By Fiachra O Cionnaith, political reporter

Five years on from its own political meltdown at the ballot boxes, Fianna Fáil is this weekend on the cusp of one of the most unlikely electoral comebacks in Irish history.

Last year its leader Micheál Martin was facing repeated rumours about his impending demise through an internal heave, with many a Brute preparing to cut down the party's ailing Caesar.

Just last month, the party was being written off as an election 2016 non-event that would be little more than a bit part player in the coronation of its oldest enemy.

And now? To paraphrase WB Yeats, all has changed, changed utterly. But if Fianna Fáil is not careful, it may find that beneath the initial glory a terrible beauty has been born.

While the soldiers of destiny are this weekend on the march back to centre stage in the Irish political debate, what route they take on the road to absolution could have dire consequences for the party which their supporters currently do not see - or do not want to see.

With power comes responsibility, and the task now staring Micheál Martin and his growing parliamentary party in the face is what this means in terms of the options on the table.

While the full election result is not yet known, it is widely expected that Fianna Fáil has four choices ahead of it as negotiations loom to agree the next government. All have positives for the previously exiled rulers of Ireland, and all have serious implications if they get it wrong.

1. A FINE GAEL-FIANNA FAIL COALITION:

Ironically for a Fine Gael party that has repeatedly said it wants stability, the one option they didn't want is now the only one that can offer that stability.

A coalition of the old civil war parties would allow Fianna Fáil the most obvious route back into the corridors of power, and given the expected closeness of the rivals' seat numbers in the next Dáil it is not a stretch of the imagination to believe it will be more of a meeting of equals than the traditional senior/junior coalition set-up.

However, while it will give them the keys to government, is this really the right option for Fianna Fáil's long-term future? Entering power with Fine Gael will leave the door wide open for Sinn Féin to waltz into government at the next time of asking after a Dáil term as the main opposition party and the likely reality Sinn Féin may have made some changes to its leadership to widen its appeal if the mooted grand coalition manages to last a number of years.

It will also mean that the suggestion Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are little more than different sides of the same coin will become even more apparent for key sections of the electorate which already hold this view, and could see both parties' identities ultimately merge together - risking an element of Fianna Fáil TDs who still have eyes for civil war politics potentially splitting in the future.

2. SUPPORTING A MINORITY FINE GAEL-LABOUR GOVERNMENT FROM OPPOSITION:

This is an option that, despite Fianna Fáil's understandable desire to strike now and return to power, could suit the party best in the medium to long term.

Right now, Fine Gael is weak, haemorrhaging voters and needs a hand. But why should Fianna Fáil automatically give it to their great enemy? Supporting a Fine Gael Labour minority government without actually signing up with the coalition.

In this scenario, the soldiers of destiny would have all the real power - they could pull the government down and cause a snap election whenever they feel like it and crucially on its own terms - while the two government parties (or just Fine Gael if Labour's demise is truly fatal) would be at risk of becoming little more than its cannon fodder.

The problem, however, is how the electorate will view this prospect. Despite the anger at Fine Gael-Labour shown through the ballot boxes and some unruly election scenes over the course of the campaign, the public wants stability and a minority government simply isn't it.

Neither is a second election in quick succession. And there is no guarantee Fianna Fáil will be welcomed at the next canvass doors with open arms if it causes either scenario.

3. TRY TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT EXCLUDES FINE GAEL:

This option was specifically stated by Micheal Martin early Saturday afternoon in a move that is half honest appraisal of the narrow distance between the two main parties' projected seat numbers, and part brinksmanship before the real negotiations between the pair begin in earnest over the coming days.

Technically, of course, Fine Gael's disaster at the ballot boxes means the scenario is an option. In theory Fianna Fáil could seek the help of the remnants of Labour and a cluster of Independents - possibly 30 - if it continues to turn its back to Sinn Féin, a potential dance partner Mr Martin simply will not envisage.

But is this really on the cards? As one senior Fianna Fáil TD told the Irish Examiner on Saturday, it is next to impossible to believe 30 Independents can each strike deals and "line up in the office" with a government that has any genuine interest in stability. The Social Democrats will offer at most four seats, the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit is not an option and as for Renua and Labour? Well, 'what' Renua and Labour, exactly?

It will be an oft-repeated message over the coming days from Fianna Fáil as the party insists it wants to try to form a government excluding Fine Gael before the Dáil resumes on March 10. And, judging by its likely seat numbers, it has that right. An "obligation" no less, as another senior Fianna Fáil TD put it.

But there is little prospect of this fairytale for the party actually happening given the fact it is hardly storming towards a majority itself - and pursuing the possibility for longer than the opening stakes in negotiations with Fine Gael necessitate would risk further frustrating an already angry electorate.

4. A SECOND ELECTION:

It could happen, and it could see Fianna Fáil's high stakes decision to double down propel the party to even greater heights.

The trends are with Fianna Fáil, Labour is facing a terminal demise and Fine Gael is likely to be in the grip of a damaging leadership fight over the coming days.

Framed a certain way, this final option could be everything Mr Martin's party is hoping for. But it is a high-risk strategy that could easily backfire if not approached in the right (public relations) way.

Telling people who have voted a certain way in a general election that they'll have to do it all again so soon could have a nasty habit of causing them to turn in ever larger numbers to the new kid parties and Independents on the electoral block - another, arguably more important, trend taking place in election 2016.

It worked for the Nice and Lisbon treaties, but third time is not always the charm.

Whatever option is taken, it is now decision time for Micheal Martin and Fianna Fáil.

Tick, tock.

more courts articles

Man (25) in court charged with murdering his father and attempted murder of mother Man (25) in court charged with murdering his father and attempted murder of mother
Man appears in court charged with false imprisonment of woman in van Man appears in court charged with false imprisonment of woman in van
Man in court over alleged false imprisonment of woman Man in court over alleged false imprisonment of woman

More in this section

Irish homelessness Government criticised for missing social and affordable housing targets
National Risk Assessment for Ireland Tánaiste urges Israel ‘to show humanity’ and allow more aid into Gaza
Lego set based on RNLI lifeboat could soon become a reality Lego set based on RNLI lifeboat could soon become a reality
War_map
Cookie Policy Privacy Policy Brand Safety FAQ Help Contact Us Terms and Conditions

© Examiner Echo Group Limited