Coveney on Brexit: Work to do, but deal is possible

A deal may not be reached until hours before Thursday’s EU summit, Tánaiste Simon Coveney tells Political Correspondent Fiachra Ó Cionnaith.

Coveney on Brexit: Work to do, but deal is possible

A deal may not be reached until hours before Thursday’s EU summit, Tánaiste Simon Coveney tells Political Correspondent Fiachra Ó Cionnaith

So close, and yet potentially so far away. That is the mood at the heart of the EU this morning as a long-promised Brexit deal which suddenly veered into view last Thursday remains in doubt due to the Northern Ireland question.

With time running out before Thursday and Friday’s crunch EU summit in Brussels, rumours are growing an emergency summit may be needed next week to finalise a deal, and that a technical extension to the October 31 deadline may be required.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney is acutely aware of the knife-edge the long-awaited Brexit deal is now balancing on. Speaking exclusively to the Irish Examiner on the fringes of the EU General Assembly council in Luxembourg, Mr Coveney said that while there are “big gaps” between both sides, he still believes a Brexit deal can be agreed.

However, he admits no one will know if a solution to the three-year stand-off can be found until the “eve” of Thursday’s summit — effectively bringing the Brexit drama down to a last-minute make-or-break moment.

“At the end of [the latest technical talks on Sunday and Monday morning] I think there were still clearly big gaps between the two sides,” he said. “So it’s really a question now of whether that pathway can be delivered through technical negotiations and a legal text in a way the UK can live with and a way the EU and Ireland can live with.

“In my view, it is possible to do that, the question is whether we can get it done in a relatively short period of time that we have available to us between now and the end of the month.”

The issue is one that has been put under the spotlight in the past 24 hours, with Fine Gael MEP and vice-president of the European Parliament Mairead McGuinness voicing her concerns on RTÉ Radio on Monday that there is not enough time left for the “nitty-gritty” to agree a deal by this week’s EU summit.

With other senior EU sources also voicing pessimism over meeting such a timeline, the potential for a technical extension to the October 31 deadline or an emergency EU summit being called for next week to finalise the deal has been mooted — options Mr Coveney is careful not to shoot down.

Asked if either possibility could be triggered in the next 24 hours due to the stand-off over the Northern Ireland customs union suggestion, the Tánaiste says it is ultimately a matter for EU and British negotiators to decide.

However, while he says that “some people are still hopeful that it may be possible to do it [a deal] this week”, ultimately no option can be ruled out.

“The straight answer is ‘I don’t know’,” he said. “Certainly when Michel Barnier briefed people, he made it very clear that there is still a lot of work to do. But it’s possible to move through that work relatively quickly if there was full buy-in from both sides.

“So, you know, I think it’s it’s really probably not helpful for me to speculate on timelines. I think that’s that’s a call for the task force and for the two negotiating teams. “I think the view of the EU is that we should stick to the timeline of this summit. This week is a key summit, where the expectation is that they will be making definitive decisions one way or another on Brexit.

“Don’t forget this, by law, in British law, the prime minister on Saturday is required to send a letter seeking an extension if he doesn’t have a deal by Saturday. So, moving into next week, I think, has a lot of added complications should that happen.

There will be a real effort to try to find a way of getting agreement this week. But we’ll have to wait and see where we are on the eve of the summit.

As ever with Brexit, it ultimately all comes down to the North and the customs union. During their three-hour behind-closed-doors meeting in Cheshire on Thursday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and British prime minister Boris Johnson discussed a potential breakthrough which would see the province leave with the rest of the UK, but continue to impose EU customs rules.

While the plan was giving implicit backing in Dublin and London, it was called into question by senior EU sources at the weekend, with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, among those to suggest further British concessions would be required.

Asked about the issue, Mr Coveney conceded it remains the major stumbling block in talks, saying that while there remains a “pathway” to a deal, the solutions “are technical and will be difficult to put in place in the context of a legal text”,a view underlined by a number of EU sources.

What this all means for Ireland is that, despite last Thursday’s progress, there remains a real risk that the hoped-for Brexit deal may not be agreed this week — a situation that could push a no-deal scenario back onto the table if no further progress is made.

Not for the first time, when asked what plans are in place for the border if no-deal happens, and what has been agreed in long-term behind-the-scenes talks with the European Commission, Mr Coveney says that now — just a fortnight out from the October 31 Brexit deadline — is not the time to provide further details.

“No,” he said when asked to clarify what would happen to the border if there is a no-deal, “we’re finalising that with the commission. We have this dual responsibility of protecting the peace process and all-island economy as best we can, while at the same time making sure we protect the integrity of the single market.

“But if you have Northern Ireland outside of the EU, outside of the customs union and outside of the single market, and the Republic of Ireland in all three, there will be tariff issues.

“So, you know, we face very difficult choices in a no-deal scenario. We’re trying to finalise that with the European Commission, how to do that while protecting a peace process as best we can. They will be difficult choices if we have to make them, but if we have to make them, we will.”

With just 48 hours to go until the EU summit, it remains unclear if a Brexit deal is finally in view or will be swept off the table again. Not for the first time, Ireland is at the centre of the drama. And, as is all too clear, far more depends on the outcome than just Britain’s departure from the EU.

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