US generals express fear about possible civil war in Iraq
Two of the most senior US generals told Congress today that the surge in sectarian violence in Baghdad in recent weeks raises the possibility of Iraq descending into civil war.
“Iraq could move toward civil war” if the violence is not contained, Gen John Abizaid, the top US commander in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I have seen it,” he said, adding that the top priority in Iraq is to secure the capital Baghdad, where factional violence has surged in recent weeks despite efforts by the new Iraqi government to stop the fighting.
US President George Bush last week approved an increase in the number of US troops in Baghdad as part of a new effort to help Iraqi security forces get a grip on the sectarian tensions.
Abizaid later in the hearing expressed confidence that the Iraqi government is moving in the right direction.
“Am I optimistic whether or not Iraqi forces, with our support, with the backing of the Iraqi government, can prevent the slide to civil war? My answer is yes, I’m optimistic that that slide can be prevented,” he said.
Abizaid also said under questioning that it was possible that US casualties could rise as a result of the battle to contain sectarian violence in the capital.
“I think it’s possible that in the period ahead of us in Baghdad that we’ll take increased casualties – that’s possible,” he said.
Gen Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the panelf: “We do have the possibility of that devolving into civil war.” He added that this need not happen and stressed that ultimately it depends on the Iraqis more than on the US military.
“Shiite and Sunni are going to have to love their children more than they hate each other,” Pace said, before the tensions can be overcome.
“The weight of that must be on the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government.”
Bush and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have steadfastly refused to call the situation in Iraq a civil war, although Rumsfeld at a news conference yesterday acknowledged that the violence is increasing.
The commanders’ concessions about the threat of a civil war came just three months before congressional elections in which Bush administration policy in Iraq looms as a defining issue. Many voters have tired of the three-year-old war, which has cost more than 2,500 US lives.
Rumsfeld, who testified alongside Abizaid and Pace, did not comment directly on the prospect of civil war but said Iraq’s future lay in the hands of Iraqis, beginning with a reconciliation process that has yet to get under way.
“Ultimately the sectarian violence is going to be dealt with by Iraqis,” Rumsfeld said.
Under questioning by Sen John McCain, Pace said he did not anticipate one year ago that Iraq would now be in danger of descending into civil war. Abizaid said it was obvious a year ago that sectarian violence was on the rise, and that Iraq’s police forces did not develop as well as US officials had expected.
“It’s vital that we turn this around,” the general said.
Pressed about the prospect of reducing US troop levels in Iraq, Rumsfeld stuck to his usual assertion that it depends on conditions and on the ability of the Iraqi government to suppress sectarian tensions. He said the Pentagon is seeking a careful balance between having too few troops and having too many.
“That’s a fair tension there,” Rumsfeld said.
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