Spread of bird flu to 'slow down'
The spread of bird flu in Europe and Africa is likely to slow down over the summer months, but the threat of a global pandemic will not decrease, international health officials said at the start of a conference in Sweden today.
The three-day conference is reviewing Europe’s preparedness for a possible flu pandemic.
It has assembled experts from the European Union and the United Nations in the Swedish university town of Uppsala, about 45 miles north of the capital, Stockholm. Experts and health officials from 48 countries are attending.
Today, the experts said that while the deadly H5N1 strain has spread to 30 new countries since January – mainly in Europe and Africa – the decreased movement of migratory birds in the summer means the number of new cases of the disease will probably go down in the next months and return this fall.
“That is the likely scenario,” said Zsuzsanna Jakab, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, or ECDC. “But we should be prepared in case they (deadly strains) come back.”
Fewer cases of H5N1 do not mean the threat of a mutated virus that could spread among humans – which experts fear could spark a global pandemic – will go down until migratory birds start moving again.
“In my view, there is no change in the threat of a mutation taking place,” said David Nabarro, senior influenza co-ordinator for the World Health Organisation. “But I think we are better equipped now to contain it, if it starts. And that’s a great thing, because it means we are in a better position to at least restrict the size and speed of a pandemic.”
Jakab said that even though every European country had a national plan in case of a pandemic, the Uppsala conference sought to “identify the gaps” in those plans and make sure they were efficient.
While European preparedness is being “strengthened month by month and week by week,” plans will constantly need to be updated and improved, she said.
Nabarro lauded what he called “dramatic improvement” in international cooperation in dealing with the bird flu threat over the past six months in Asia and Africa. “No single country can do it (alone), it’s all countries together,” he said.
He hailed China’s step-up in authorities’ transparency in dealing with bird flu, but said African countries, where governments have limited resources, were struggling the most in containing the disease and compared the situation to Africa’s battle against Aids and malaria.
The conference will also discuss increasing stockpiles of anti-viral drugs – a remaining challenge for the EU.
