Formation fashion is for safety first
The 4-5-1 formation may not be the work of the devil but for many it is a symptom of all the Barclays Premiership’s troubles – and it is on the rise.
Attendances are down on last year and fewer goals have been scored than at the same stage of any other year since the top flight broke away from the Football League.
The cause is thought to be a negative approach taken by managers more fearful of the drop than optimistic of chasing the English game’s big prizes.
Jose Mourinho is blamed for introducing 4-5-1 to the Premiership with other managers following his example.
But, according to PA Sport’s match-day experts, the traditional 4-4-2 is still used more frequently than any other formation and it still produces more goals than 4-5-1.
However, its use is declining dramatically with teams kicking off with the formation just 47 times this season – producing 56 goals – compared to 74 times - producing 105 goals – at the same stage last season.
At the same time, 4-5-1 is on the rise with 11 counts this season, compared to just two in 2004-05.
In terms of goals scored, 4-4-2 certainly appears to have been the more positive formation over the last four seasons with each team scoring an average of 1.49 goals each time they use it, while 4-5-1 yields just 0.81.
However, the latter is better defensively with one goal conceded compared to 1.52 for 4-4-2.
A better option would appear to be 4-3-3 which yields 1.7 goals per game while giving away 1.35.
