2004 global growth 'fastest for 20 years'
Global economic growth in 2004 was the fastest for more than 20 years, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
However, there are already signs that growth is decelerating in some major economies, and the outlook for 2005-06 is for a more modest pace of expansion.
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that world GDP growth (on a purchasing power parity basis) will slow from a rapid 5% in 2004 to 4.2% in 2005 and 3.9% in 2006.
Measured using GDP at market exchange rates (which give greater emphasis to the OECD countries and reflect the exchange rates at which firms trade and repatriate profits), world GDP growth will slow from an estimated 3.9% in 2004 to a forecast 3% in 2005 and 2.9% in 2006, the unit said today.
Key changes since January 13, 2005
* The Economist Intelligence Unit has cut its forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2005 to 0.8% (previously 1.4%). Following recent revisions to official GDP data, it now appears that the Japanese economy contracted during the last three quarters of 2004.
* The unit revised up the forecast for US GDP growth in 2005 to 3.3% (previously 3.1%), reflecting stronger than expected consumer demand in the final months of 2004.
* The unit also made an upward revision to the forecast for Dated Brent crude oil prices to US$37.50/barrel in 2005 and US$33.56/b in 2006 (previously US$36.75/b and US$29/b), due to an assumption of continued strong oil demand in China and other fast-growing emerging markets.
