Putin to romp home in 'one-horse race'
With incumbent Vladimir Putin assured of a second term, the Russian presidential election on Sunday has been called everything from a one-horse race to the starting gun for the campaign to succeed him in 2008.
It has also been called a farce and a Kremlin “special operation” – anything but a vote whose outcome has ever been in doubt.
After winning nearly complete control over parliament in December and installing a loyal new Cabinet days before the election, Putin – a former KGB officer who was virtually unknown half a decade ago – is poised to seal another four years at Russia’s helm.
In a televised address, Putin told Russians that ”each of our votes has huge importance” – but few believe that.
“The result was decided long ago,” Siberian pensioner Ilya Ilyin said, dismissing the election with a wave of his hand.
Putin regularly wins approval ratings of 70% or more, and none of his five challengers – one liberal, two nationalists, a Communist and a politician who has said he was running to support the president – is expected to climb far past the single digits.
The lack of a credible challenger has made the election a kind of popularity contest with a single contestant, making voter turnout the key Kremlin concern.
“Put simply, what’s happening is a plebiscite on trust in Putin,” said Mark Urnov, chairman of the Expertise Foundation, a Moscow think tank.
Putin himself seems certain of his own victory. Appointing his new Cabinet this week, he noted that it would be dismissed following the election, as required by the Constitution, but said the process would be a pure formality and that the government would keep on working.
The president’s critics say that’s what democracy has become in Russia: a formality. Like no-choice votes of the Communist era, they say, elections in what analysts call Putin’s “managed democracy” have become a procedure organised by the Kremlin to legitimise the status quo.
The presidential vote comes three months after the main pro-Putin party won a sweeping victory in parliamentary elections that foreign observers said were unfair and a setback for democracy because of the authorities’ use of the state-run media and other levers of influence.
Without once saying “vote for me,” Putin has dominated the state-run television networks during the presidential race in campaign-like appearances disguised as typical presidential activities: meeting with athletes, handing out medals to prominent women, sitting in the audience at a comedy show.
In a report on the campaign, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the state-run media has shown “clear favouritism” toward Putin.
Putin, though, is also the people’s clear favourite, and the widespread impression that he can’t lose has apparently prompted Kremlin concern over turnout.
While there are no actual campaign advertisements for Putin, efforts to get out the vote have snowballed as the election draws closer.
A stern Putin urged Russians to vote in his address last night, and the footage led several news programmes on state-run channels.
Today, his call was repeated by top Russian religious leaders, and state-run television also showed three of Putin’s opponents calling on people to vote.
Some liberal opponents have called for a boycott of the election, but their efforts have been diluted by the campaign of Irina Khakamada, a liberal candidate seeking the protest vote.
For disgruntled Russians of other political stripes, nationalist Sergei Glazyev and Communist Nikolai Kharitonov are alternatives.
Most analysts predict that turnout will exceed 50% – enough to make the election valid – even if it is not boosted illegally.
But they say the Kremlin may fear a relatively low figure would leave Putin more vulnerable to opposition.
In Moscow’s subway, advertisements offer concert tickets to people casting votes.
The OSCE report said “police actions” against people campaigning for a boycott had raised concerns, but did not cite examples.
The independent voter-rights group Golos claimed voters had been removed from registration lists in some regions in an apparent attempt to boost turnout percentages.
Leonid Sedov, a senior researcher with the independent Levada Analytical Service, said a high turnout would boost Putin’s already strong personal power and help him shed his image as Yeltsin’s successor – something he has sought to do throughout his term.
“Now it will be absolutely clear that he has a firm majority in the country, and this will untie his hands and let him realize his plans – if he has them,” said Sedov, who predicted turnout of at least 63%.
Russia’s constitution bars presidents from serving more than two straight terms, and Putin has said he opposes amending it to extend his time in office. But he announced last month that he, too, plans to pick a preferred successor.
“It’s absolutely clear that Putin wants to make it as easy as possible to choose a successor without anyone getting in his way,” Urnov said.
By the Kremlin’s logic, he said, “for this of course it’s necessary for him to win powerfully.”
